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Supply Chain Disruption and Energy Supply Shocks: Impact on Euro-Area Output and Prices

Author

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  • Roberto A. De Santis

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

We identify jointly supply chain disruptions shocks and energy supply shocks together with demand shocks using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with narrative restrictions. The impact of adverse supply chain disruption shocks on inflation expectations and core HICP is strong and rather persistent, while the impact is small and transitory after energy supply shocks. Supply chain disruption shocks and favorable demand shocks explain the large faction of output fluctuations in the 2020–22 period. The dynamics of core prices and inflation expectations are instead mostly explained by supply chain disruption shocks and to a lesser extent by adverse energy supply shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto A. De Santis, 2024. "Supply Chain Disruption and Energy Supply Shocks: Impact on Euro-Area Output and Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 193-235, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2024:q:2:a:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harri Kemp & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Marika Santoro, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 2023/042, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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