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Have Inflation Expectations Become Un-anchored? The Role of Oil Prices and Global Aggregate Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan Sussman

    (Graduate Institute, Geneva, and CEPR)

  • Osnat Zohar

    (Bank of Israel)

Abstract

Beginning with the global financial crisis (2008), the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term and forward inflation expectations increased, leading to fears of their unanchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we decompose nominal oil prices to a global demand factor and an idiosyncratic factor. In a Phillips-curve framework, we find a structural change after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when inflation expectations reacted more strongly to global aggregate demand conditions. Within this framework, we find no evidence that expectations became un-anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2022. "Have Inflation Expectations Become Un-anchored? The Role of Oil Prices and Global Aggregate Demand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 149-192, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2022:q:2:a:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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