IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2020q3a7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic risk and the Fallacy of Composition: Empirical Evidence from Japanese Regional Bank

Author

Listed:
  • Naohisa Hirakata

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yosuke Kido

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jie Liang Thum

    (Monetary Authority of Singapore)

Abstract

We examine a sample of Japanese regional banks and explore whether exposure to market risk factors affects systemic risk through banks' portfolio composition or revenue source, using Adrian and Brunnermeier's (2016) CoVaR to proxy for systemic risk. We find that the securities investment and fee- and commission-related activities of Japanese regional banks exert positive and significant effects on systemic risk by generating higher co-movement among banks, even though they reduce standalone bank risk through portfolio diversification. Further, the marginal effect of an increase in common risk factors on systemic risk is larger when other banks are already highly exposed to common risk factors. We interpret the results as suggestive of "fallacy of composition," since the behavior of individual banks could be individually optimal but collectively has an unwelcome systemic effect. Our results have important implications from the macroprudential perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Naohisa Hirakata & Yosuke Kido & Jie Liang Thum, 2020. "Systemic risk and the Fallacy of Composition: Empirical Evidence from Japanese Regional Bank," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(4), pages 293-325, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2020:q:3:a:7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb20q3a7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb20q3a7.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hutchison, Michael & McDill, Kathleen, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 155-180, September.
    2. Jon Danielsson & Kevin R. James & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2016. "Can We Prove a Bank Guilty of Creating Systemic Risk? A Minority Report," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 795-812, June.
    3. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2017. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 635-651.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    5. Laeven, Luc & Ratnovski, Lev & Tong, Hui, 2016. "Bank size, capital, and systemic risk: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 25-34.
    6. Qi Zhang & Francesco Vallascas & Kevin Keasey & Charlie X. Cai, 2015. "Are Market‐Based Measures of Global Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions Useful to Regulators and Supervisors?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1403-1442, October.
    7. Florian Hett & Alexander Schmidt, 2013. "Bank Bailouts and Market Discipline: How Bailout Expectations Changed During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1305, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 01 Aug 2013.
    8. López-Espinosa, Germán & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura & Antón, Miguel, 2013. "Good for one, bad for all: Determinants of individual versus systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 287-299.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Yugo Kimura & Noriyuki Shiraki, "undated". "Too-big-to-fail Reforms and Systemic Risk," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 21-E-1, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    2. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Gündüz, Yalin, 2020. "The market impact of systemic risk capital surcharges," Discussion Papers 09/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Jokivuolle, Esa & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2018. "Testing the systemic risk differences in banks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2018, Bank of Finland.
    5. Adnan Safi & Xianrong Yi & Salman Wahab & Yingying Chen & Hassan Hassan, 2021. "CEO overconfidence, firm-specific factors, and systemic risk: evidence from China," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 30-47, June.
    6. Schaeck, K. & Silva Buston, C.F. & Wagner, W.B., 2013. "The Two Faces of Interbank Correlation," Discussion Paper 2013-077, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Armstrong, Christopher & Nicoletti, Allison & Zhou, Frank S., 2022. "Executive stock options and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 256-276.
    8. Alin Marius Andrieş & Simona Nistor, 2018. "Systemic Risk and Foreign Currency Positions of Banks: Evidence from Emerging Europe," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(5), pages 382-421, September.
    9. Addi, Abdelhamid & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2023. "Interconnectedness and extreme risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Christina Bui, 2018. "Bank Regulation and Financial Stability," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2018.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ma, Chang & Nguyen, Xuan-Hai, 2021. "Too big to fail and optimal regulation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 747-758.
    13. Alin Marius Andries & Anca Maria Podpiera & Nicu Sprincean, 2022. "Central Bank Independence and Systemic Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 81-130, March.
    14. Alin Marius Andries & Anca Maria Podpiera & Nicu Sprincean, 2022. "Central Bank Independence and Systemic Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 81-130, March.
    15. Arif, Ahmed, 2020. "Effects of securitization and covered bonds on bank stability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Carlos Cañón & Jorge Florez-Acosta & Karoll Gómez, 2023. "The effects of two-way lending between financial conglomerates in bilateral repo markets," Borradores de Economia 1246, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Leong, Soon Heng & Pellegrini, Carlo Bellavite & Urga, Giovanni, 2020. "The contribution of shadow insurance to systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. Anginer, Deniz & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Mare, Davide S., 2018. "Bank capital, institutional environment and systemic stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 97-106.
    19. Tatiana Gaelle Yongoua Tchikanda, 2017. "Systemic risk and individual risk: A trade-off?," Working Papers hal-04141656, HAL.
    20. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Determinants of CDS trading on major banks," Working Papers Dissertations 51, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    21. Simona Nistor & Steven Ongena, 2023. "The Impact of Policy Interventions on Systemic Risk across Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 155-206, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2020:q:3:a:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.