Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Crash Testing German Banks

Contents:

Author Info

  • Klaus Duellmann

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Martin Erdelmeier

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this paper we stress-test credit portfolios of twenty-eight German banks based on a Merton-type multifactor credit-risk model. The stress scenario is an economic downturn in the automobile sector. Although the percentage of loans in the automobile sector is relatively low for all banks in the sample, the expected loss conditional on the stress event increases substantially by 70–80 percent for the total portfolio. This result confirms the need to account for hidden sectoral concentration risk because the increase in expected loss is driven mainly by correlation effects with related industry sectors. Therefore, credit-risk dependencies between sectors have to be adequately captured even if the trigger event is confined to a single sector. Finally, we calculate the impact on banks’ own-funds ratios, which decrease on average from 12 percent to 11.4 percent due to the stress event, which indicates that banks overall remain well capitalized. These main results are robust against various robustness checks, namely those concerning the granularity of the credit portfolio, the level of intersector asset correlations, and a cross-sectional variation of intrasector asset correlations.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb09q3a5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb09q3a5.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 139-175

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:5

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel
    Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
    Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.ijcb.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
    2. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 55-79, October.
    3. Samuel Hanson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann, 2005. "Scope for Credit Risk Diversification," IEPR Working Papers 05.18, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
    4. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    5. Elsinger, Helmut & Lehar, Alfred & Summer, Martin, 2005. "Using Market Information for Banking System Risk Assessment," MPRA Paper 817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    7. Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Duellmann, Klaus & Kick, Thomas, 2012. "Stress testing German banks against a global cost-of-capital shock," Discussion Papers 04/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    2. Natalia Podlich & Didar Illyasov & Elena Tsoy & Shynar Shaikh, 2010. "The Methodology of Stress Tests for the Kazakh Banking System," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper Nr. 85, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2009:q:3:a:5

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.