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Stress testing of real credit portfolios

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  • Mager, Ferdinand
  • Schmieder, Christian

Abstract

Stress testing has become a crucial point on the Basel II agenda, mainly as Pillar I estimates do not explicitly take portfolio concentration into account. We start from the credit portfolio of the German pension insurer being a cross-sectional representation of the German economy and subsequently compose three bank portfolios corresponding to a small, medium and large bank. We apply univariate and multivariate stress tests both by using the Internal Rating based (IRB) model and by a model that additionally allows for variation of correlation. In a severe multivariate stress scenario based on historical data for Germany IRB capital requirements increase by more than 80% with little differences between the credit portfolios. If stress testing is additionally applied to correlation, the Value-at-Risk increases by up to 300% and portfolio differences materialize. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2008,17.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:7448

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Keywords: Credit Portfolio; Exposure concentration; Stress Testing; Basel II; Economic Capital;

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  1. Schmieder, Christian & Memmel, Christoph & Stein, Ingrid, 2007. "Relationship lending: empirical evidence for Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Dirk Tasche, 2005. "Measuring sectoral diversification in an asymptotic multi-factor framework," Papers physics/0505142, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2006.
  3. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
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  5. Masschelein, Nancy & Düllmann, Klaus, 2006. "Sector concentration in loan portfolios and economic capital," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Treynor, Jack L, 1977. "The Principles of Corporate Pension Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 627-38, May.
  8. Heid, Frank, 2007. "The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3885-3900, December.
  9. Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  11. Jose A. Lopez, 2002. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default and asset size," Working Paper Series 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Jose A. Lopez, 2005. "Stress tests: useful complements to financial risk models," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun24.
  13. Schmieder, Christian & Reinschmidt, Timo & Mager, Ferdinand & Gerke, Wolfgang, 2006. "Empirical risk analysis of pension insurance: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Peura, Samu & Jokivuolle, Esa, 2004. "Simulation based stress tests of banks' regulatory capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1801-1824, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 11/83, International Monetary Fund.

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