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Stress testing of real credit portfolios

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Author Info
Mager, Ferdinand
Schmieder, Christian

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Abstract

Stress testing has become a crucial point on the Basel II agenda, mainly as Pillar I estimates do not explicitly take portfolio concentration into account. We start from the credit portfolio of the German pension insurer being a cross-sectional representation of the German economy and subsequently compose three bank portfolios corresponding to a small, medium and large bank. We apply univariate and multivariate stress tests both by using the Internal Rating based (IRB) model and by a model that additionally allows for variation of correlation. In a severe multivariate stress scenario based on historical data for Germany IRB capital requirements increase by more than 80% with little differences between the credit portfolios. If stress testing is additionally applied to correlation, the Value-at-Risk increases by up to 300% and portfolio differences materialize. --

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2008,17.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:7448

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Related research
Keywords: Credit Portfolio; Exposure concentration; Stress Testing; Basel II; Economic Capital;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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  1. Schmieder, Christian & Memmel, Christoph & Stein, Ingrid, 2007. "Relationship lending: empirical evidence for Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Peura, Samu & Jokivuolle, Esa, 2004. "Simulation based stress tests of banks' regulatory capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1801-1824, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Schmieder, Christian & Reinschmidt, Timo & Mager, Ferdinand & Gerke, Wolfgang, 2006. "Empirical risk analysis of pension insurance: the case of Germany," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dirk Tasche, 2005. "Measuring sectoral diversification in an asymptotic multi-factor framework," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0505142, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Heid, Frank, 2007. "The cyclical effects of the Basel II capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3885-3900, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lütkebohmert, Eva & Gordy, Michael B., 2007. "Granularity adjustment for Basel II," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Treynor, Jack L, 1977. "The Principles of Corporate Pension Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 627-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Düllmann, Klaus & Scheicher, Martin & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Masschelein, Nancy & Düllmann, Klaus, 2006. "Sector concentration in loan portfolios and economic capital," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jose A. Lopez, 2005. "Stress tests: useful complements to financial risk models," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun 24. [Downloadable!]
  15. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2006. "Sector Concentration in Loan Portfolios and Economic Capital," Research series 200611-17, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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