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The Distributional Implications of Income Under‐Reporting in Hungary

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  • Dóra Benedek
  • Orsolya Lelkes

Abstract

The paper estimates the distributional implications of income tax evasion in Hungary based on a random sample of administrative tax records of 230 thousand individuals. Gross incomes in the administrative tax records are compared with those in a nationally representative household budget survey, assuming that tax-evaders are more likely to report their true incomes in an anonymous interview. Our estimates show that the average rate of underreporting is 11%, which conceals large differences between self-employed (who hide the majority of their incomes) and employees. The estimates are likely to be lower bound, due to measurement error in the income survey. These rates are then used in EUROMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model to calculate the fiscal and distributional implications of underreporting, while taking account of all major direct taxes and cash benefits and also their interactions. Tax evasion reduces fiscal revenues from personal income taxes by about 19%. While the occurrence of poverty is not affected, income inequality becomes significantly higher (the Gini coefficient increases by 7%), suggesting that high earners tend to evade proportionately more. Finally, we find that tax evasion largely reduces the progressivity of the tax system.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2011.00150.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its journal Fiscal Studies.

Volume (Year): 32 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 539-560

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Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:32:y:2011:i:4:p:539-560

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References

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  1. Schneider, Friedrich & Klinglmair, Robert, 2004. "Shadow Economies around the World: What Do We Know?," IZA Discussion Papers 1043, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  5. László Csontos & János Kornai & István György Tóth, 1998. "Tax awareness and reform of the welfare state: Hungarian survey results," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 6(2), pages 287-312, November.
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  8. Allingham, Michael G. & Sandmo, Agnar, 1972. "Income tax evasion: a theoretical analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 323-338, November.
  9. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Francesco Figari & Paulus, A. (Alari), 2012. "GINI DP 28: The impact of indirect taxes and imputed rent on inequality: A comparison with cash transfers and direct taxes in five EU countries," GINI Discussion Papers 28, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
  2. Manos Matsaganis & Chrysa Leventi & Maria Flevotomou, 2012. "The Crisis and Tax Evasion in Greece: What are the Distributional Implications?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(2), pages 26-32, 07.
  3. Tamar Khitarishvili, 2010. "Assessing the Returns to Education in Georgia," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_608, Levy Economics Institute, The.

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