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A háztartások eltitkolt jövedelmének becslése inverz keresleti függvénnyel
[Estimating the concealed income of households using an inverse demand function]

Author

Listed:
  • Keresztély, Tibor
  • Madari, Zoltán

Abstract

A rejtett gazdaság kiterjedtsége alapvetően befolyásolja az adóbevételeket és a gazdaságpolitikai döntések hatásosságát. Ebben a tanulmányban a rejtett gazdaság munkaerőpiaci jellemzőinek vizsgálatával a háztartások eltitkolt jövedelmének arányát próbáltuk megbecsülni. Első lépésként két háztartástípust definiálunk: 1. a közszférában dolgozók, akiknek jövedelemeltitkolási lehetőségei nagyon korlátozottak, valamint 2. a versenyszférában működők, akik esetében nagyobb a csalás lehetősége. A közszféra háztartásainak adatain megbecsüljük az általunk valósnak tekintett fogyasztási függvény paramétereit, majd ennek a függvénynek az inverze segítségével újrabecsüljük a versenyszférában dolgozó háztartások jövedelmét. Az így kapott becslések és a bejelentett jövedelmek közötti eltérést tekinthetjük eltitkolt jövedelemnek. Ennek mértéke erősen változik a háztartás egyéb jellemzőinek függvényében, különös tekintettel a háztartás jövedelmi helyzetére, valamint földrajzi elhelyezkedésére. Számításaink szerint 2015-ben 15-20 százalék közé volt tehető a versenyszféra háztartásai által eltitkolt jövedelem aránya. Ez az összes háztartásra vonatkozó becslésünk 12-16 százalékos eltitkolási arányának felel meg, ami 2017-re nagyjából a felére csökkent.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E26.

Suggested Citation

  • Keresztély, Tibor & Madari, Zoltán, 2021. "A háztartások eltitkolt jövedelmének becslése inverz keresleti függvénnyel [Estimating the concealed income of households using an inverse demand function]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 736-752.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1981
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2021.7-8.736
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dóra Benedek & Orsolya Lelkes, 2011. "The Distributional Implications of Income Under‐Reporting in Hungary," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 539-560, December.
    2. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    3. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    4. Molnár, György & Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2008. "Háztartási fogyasztói magatartás és jólét Magyarországon a rendszerváltás után [Household consumer behaviour and welfare in Hungary since the change of system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 107-135.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy

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