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A century of PPP: supportive results from nonlinear unit root tests

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Author Info

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Ali M. Kutan
  • Su Zhou

Abstract

In this paper, we test Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) by applying a new unit root test that allows for nonlinearity in the data to the real exchange rates, constructed with a century of data of 20 countries from Taylor (2002). The problem of lag selection has been taken into account in testing as recommended by Lopez et al. (2005), who challenged Taylor's conclusion that PPP holds well over the 20th century. The results support PPP in 16 out of 19 cases when the US dollar is used as base currency, a result much closer to Taylor (2002) than Lopez et al. (2005) and in line with Wallace and Shelley (2006).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Inderscience Enterprises Ltd in its journal Global Business and Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 11 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 19-27

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Handle: RePEc:ids:gbusec:v:11:y:2009:i:1:p:19-27

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Web page: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=168

Related research

Keywords: purchasing power parity; PPP; nonlinearity; unit roots; exchange rates; lag selection.;

References

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  1. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
  3. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  4. Claude Lopez & David H. Papell, 2003. "Convergence to Purchasing Power Parity at the Commencement of the Euro," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2003-08, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  5. Lopez, Claude & Murray, Christian J & Papell, David H, 2005. "State of the Art Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 361-69, April.
  6. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2006. "The yen real exchange rate may be stationary after all: evidence from non-linear unit root tests," Bank of England working papers 311, Bank of England.
  7. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  9. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
  10. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  11. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  12. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
  13. Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004. "Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June.
  14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Das, Satya P, 1985. "Transaction Costs and the Interest Parity Theorem," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 793-99, August.
  15. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 8012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cuddington, John T. & Liang, Hong, 2000. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 753-757, October.
  17. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  18. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February.
  19. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers wp05-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  20. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2004. "Univariate time series behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from colonial India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 75-80, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Wallace, Frederick, 2009. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," MPRA Paper 18079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:31:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:33:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS

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