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Effects of Volatility of Exports in the Philippines and Thailand

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Author Info
Dipendra Sinha

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Abstract

There have been numerous studies on the relationship between volatility of exports and economic growth. Most of these studies have used cross-section data. Recently, some studies have used time series data to study the relationship. However, there have been no studies which have used the Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methodology to study export volatility. This paper fills the void and uses quarterly data for the Philippines and Thailand to study the effects of export volatility. We find that for both countries, the shock to volatility of growth of exports is permanent. Also, past volatility is significant in predicting future volatility.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Icfai Press in its journal The Icfai University Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): V (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 78-83
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Handle: RePEc:icf:icfjfe:v:05:y:2007:i:3:p:78-83

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sinha, D., 1999. "Export Instability, Investment and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: A Time Series Analysis," Papers 799, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1991. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 815-28, July.
  5. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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