IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ibn/ijefaa/v14y2022i6p62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate and Trade Balances in Brazil: A Disaggregated Analysis by Major Economic Categories

Author

Listed:
  • Elano Ferreira Arruda
  • Antônio Clécio de Brito
  • Pablo Urano de Carvalho Castelar

Abstract

This work investigates the repercussions of real devaluations in the exchange rate on the trade balance for Brazil, when considering major economic categories, i.e., capital goods, durable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, intermediate goods, and fuels and lubricants. To this end, monthly data are used for the period January 2000 and July 2019, and vector error correction (VEC) models. The results suggest that, in the long run, real devaluations in the exchange rate have positive and elastic impacts on the trade balance in all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants. Only the durable consumer goods and fuels and lubricants sectors do not show the occurrence of the J curve. Domestic income has a negative impact on the trade balance in most models analyzed, while foreign income has a positive impact on all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants.

Suggested Citation

  • Elano Ferreira Arruda & Antônio Clécio de Brito & Pablo Urano de Carvalho Castelar, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Trade Balances in Brazil: A Disaggregated Analysis by Major Economic Categories," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(6), pages 1-62, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:14:y:2022:i:6:p:62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/download/0/0/47308/50691
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/0/47308
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergio Da Silva & Guilherme Moura, 2005. "Is There a Brazilian J-Curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(10), pages 1-17.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall.
    3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    4. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:10:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Noland, Marcus, 1989. "Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 175-179, February.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Kanta Marwah & Lawrence R. Klein, 1996. "Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 523-539, August.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2015. "Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(3), pages 519-530, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 279-296.
    3. Salah A. Nusair, 2017. "The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2007. "Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-12.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2020. "Asymmetric cointegration and the J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between Turkey and EU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 757-792, November.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:26:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    8. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    9. Herzer Dierk, 2022. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-55, April.
    10. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    12. Shabanzadeh, Mehdi & Kenari, Reza Esfanjari & Jansouz, Parinaz & Kalashami, Mohammad Kavoosi, 2016. "Bank Credits and Investment Growth of Agricultural Sector in Iran," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 6(1), March.
    13. Perles-Ribes, José Francisco & Ramón-Rodríguez, Ana Belén & Rubia, Antonio & Moreno-Izquierdo, Luis, 2017. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid after the global economic and financial crisis? The case of Spain 1957–2014," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 96-109.
    14. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    15. Peguero, Anadel G. & Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Condición Marshall-Lerner y el efecto Curva J: Evidencias para la República Dominicana [Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Effect: Evidence for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 71535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    17. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2019. "An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 2854-2899, October.
    18. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis, 2014. "Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 629-652, March.
    19. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
    20. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    21. Ketenci, Natalya, 2014. "The bilateral trade balance of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 54661, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:14:y:2022:i:6:p:62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Canadian Center of Science and Education (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepflch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.