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Efficiency of the Black Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Ali Farhan Chaudhry
  • Mian Muhammd Hanif
  • Sameera Hassan
  • Muhammad Irfan Chani

Abstract

This empirical study is first of its nature to examine the weak-form of efficiency for unofficial foreign exchange market of Pakistan proxied by Japanese Yen (JPY/PKR), Swiss Franc (CHF/PKR), British Pound (GBP/PKR), and US Dollar (USD/PKR) exchange rates. For this we have employed Ljung Box Q-test, unit root tests including Dickey-Fuller (Dickey 1979), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Dickey 1981) tests and Phillips and Perron (1988) test, Durbin Watson test, Runs-test, and Variance ratio test by using unofficial foreign exchange rate time series of Yen/PKR, CHF/PKR, GBP/PKR and USD/PKR from 1994M07 to 2001M06. Empirical results lead to the conclusion that the unofficial foreign exchange market of Pakistan is weak-form efficiency. The implications of this empirical research are of great importance for designing foreign exchange policy i.e. policy makers (be it accounting, export/import or public policy makers) are to consider fluctuations in unofficial foreign exchange rates while designing official foreign exchange rate policy of developing country like Pakistan. Further, policymakers can enhance the efficiency of official foreign exchange market by intervention subject to a widening of unofficial foreign exchange premium beyond a certain limit in developing countries like Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Farhan Chaudhry & Mian Muhammd Hanif & Sameera Hassan & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2019. "Efficiency of the Black Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 165-174, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:165-174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ahmed, Usman & Alim, Wajid, 2021. "Black Economy, Financial Inclusion, Financial Liberalization Nexus: A Panel Analysis of Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 111129, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    efficiency; black foreign exchange market; Pakistan; efficient market hypothesis; unit root tests; random walk hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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