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On the Robustness of Cointegration Tests of the Market Efficiency Hypothesis: Evidence from Six European Foreign Exchange Markets

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Author Info

  • Masih , Abul M.M.

    (School of Finance and Business Economics. Faculty of Business, Edith Cowan University)

  • Masih, Rumi

    ()
    (Goldman Sachs Asset Management)

Abstract

By using Johansen's multivariate co integration procedural, six European spot forward exchange rates are used to test f or the market efficiency hypothesis under three different exchange rate regimes. Although the co integration technique is b extensively used for hypothesis testing of a similar nature, vary little work has been done to substantiate the results derived from this technique either with respect robustness of modal specification or sample stability. The paper highlights this a by providing: emphasis upon the international properties of the data via a menu unit root tests; iterative tests for the number of co integrating vectors over the floating period; and extends the analysis to construct multi-dimensional models in an examination of both spot and forward market efficiency between all the European currencies. The evidence is not supportive of the unbiasedness condition and hence market efficiency inside any of the European exchange markets. However, tests are across alternative spot/forward rate combinations exhibited efficiency for ma of the bilateral relationships over the floating regime. Moreover, results seem to be robust across different exchange rate regimes, model specifications and over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

Volume (Year): 47 (1994)
Issue (Month): 2-3 ()
Pages: 160-180

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Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0416

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Cited by:
  1. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 7(1-2).
  2. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
  3. Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
  4. Jee, Hui-Siang Brenda & Lau, Evan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali, 2010. "Domestic fuel price and economic sectors in Malaysia: a future of renewable energy?," MPRA Paper 22242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
  6. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
  7. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
  8. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
  9. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  10. Kühl, Michael, 2010. "Bivariate cointegration of major exchange rates, cross-market efficiency and the introduction of the Euro," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-19, January.
  11. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2002. "Propagative causal price transmission among international stock markets: evidence from the pre- and postglobalization period," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-91.
  12. Alam, Shaista & Ahmed, Mohsin H. & Butt, Muhammad S., 2003. "The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 447-463, June.
  13. Rumi Masih & A. Mansur & M. Masih, 2004. "Common stochastic trends and the dynamic linkages driving european stock markets: evidence from pre- and post-october 1987 crash eras," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 81-104.

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