Confidence and Unemployment in the European Union: A lesson from the 2004 enlargement
AbstractWe use data for the monthly unemployment rate and consumer confidence indicator in the European Union to study whether there is a relationship between unemployment and confidence. Our estimation method is based on a fuzzy logic methodology with a Gaussian membership function. We find a stronger relationship between unemployment and confidence than it is apparent. We show in an ex-post prediction study that this relationship did not change, in a significant way, after the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. This fact constitutes a lesson for the post-2007 enlargement period. The link between unemployment and confidence has important policy implications given its relevance, in particular for the (latest call for a new start of the) Lisbon Strategy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its journal Notas Económicas.
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 26 (December)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- James E. West & Bruce Linster, 2003. "The Evolution of Fuzzy Rules as Strategies in Two-Player Games," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 705-717, January.
- Antonio Caleiro, 2006. "How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 887-890.
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