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Methodology and Application of Statistical Techniques to Evaluate the Reliability of Electrical Systems Based on the Use of High Variability Generation Sources

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  • César Berna-Escriche

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • Ángel Pérez-Navarro

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • Alberto Escrivá

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • Elías Hurtado

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • José Luis Muñoz-Cobo

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

  • María Cristina Moros

    (Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ingeniería Energética of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

This study presents a new methodology, based on Monte-Carlo techniques to evaluate the reliability of a carbon-free electricity generation system based on renewable sources; it uses as inputs the variation of the electricity demand and the fluctuations in the renewable supply and provides the renewable system to be installed to guarantee a specific supply reliability level. Additionally, looking for a reduction of this renewable system, the methodology determines the improvements by the incorporation of nuclear power and electricity storage. The methodology is of general application, its implementation being possible under different contexts, such as different time horizons and different future energy scenarios, both for developing, emerging, and developed countries. The only requirement is to have a sufficient database from which to make predictions for future scenarios of electrical generation–demand balances. As an example of practical implementation, the electrical system reliability for the particular case of Spain in 2040 has been forecasted. When considering the fluctuations in solar and wind power contributions, very high values of the installed power from these renewable sources are needed to reach a high reliability of the system. These values decrease substantially if contributions from nuclear and storage technologies are included.

Suggested Citation

  • César Berna-Escriche & Ángel Pérez-Navarro & Alberto Escrivá & Elías Hurtado & José Luis Muñoz-Cobo & María Cristina Moros, 2021. "Methodology and Application of Statistical Techniques to Evaluate the Reliability of Electrical Systems Based on the Use of High Variability Generation Sources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-27, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:18:p:10098-:d:632068
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    2. Diankai Wang & Inna Gryshova & Anush Balian & Mykola Kyzym & Tetiana Salashenko & Viktoriia Khaustova & Olexandr Davidyuk, 2022. "Assessment of Power System Sustainability and Compromises between the Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Carlos Vargas-Salgado & César Berna-Escriche & Alberto Escrivá-Castells & Dácil Díaz-Bello, 2022. "Optimization of All-Renewable Generation Mix According to Different Demand Response Scenarios to Cover All the Electricity Demand Forecast by 2040: The Case of the Grand Canary Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-29, February.

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