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Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

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  • Liang Qiao

    (National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
    Shandong Construction and Development Research Institute, Jinan 250004, China)

  • Doudou Liu

    (School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China)

  • Xueliang Yuan

    (National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China)

  • Qingsong Wang

    (National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China)

  • Qiao Ma

    (National Engineering Laboratory for Reducing Emissions from Coal Combustion, Engineering Research Center of Environmental Thermal Technology of Ministry of Education, Shandong Key Laboratory of Energy Carbon Reduction and Resource Utilization, Research Center for Sustainable Development, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China)

Abstract

The output of construction and demolition (C&D) waste in China has been rapidly increasing in the past decades. The direct landfill of such construction and demolition waste without any treatment accounts for about 98%. Therefore, recycling and utilizing this waste is necessary. The prediction of the output of such waste is the basis for waste disposal and resource utilization. This study takes Shandong Province as a case, the current output of C&D waste is analyzed by building area estimation method, and the output of C&D waste in the next few years is also predicted by Mann–Kendall trend test and quadratic exponential smoothing prediction method. Results indicate that the annual productions of C&D waste in Shandong Province demonstrates a significant growth trend with average annual growth of 11.38%. The growth rates of each city differ a lot. The better the city’s economic development, the higher the level of urbanization, the more C&D waste generated. The prediction results suggest that the output of C&D waste in Shandong Province will grow at an average rate of 3.07% in the next few years. By 2025, the amount of C&D waste will reach 141 million tons. These findings can provide basic data support and reference for the management and utilization of C&D waste.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Qiao & Doudou Liu & Xueliang Yuan & Qingsong Wang & Qiao Ma, 2020. "Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:12:p:5094-:d:375231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wen, Hu & Yan, Li & Jin, Yongfei & Wang, Zhipeng & Guo, Jun & Deng, Jun, 2023. "Coalbed methane concentration prediction and early-warning in fully mechanized mining face based on deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    2. Kien Ton Tong & Ngoc Tan Nguyen & Giang Hoang Nguyen & Tomonori Ishigaki & Ken Kawamoto, 2022. "Management Assessment and Future Projections of Construction and Demolition Waste Generation in Hai Phong City, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.

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