IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i12p5032-d373802.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Influence of Increasing Electrification of Passenger Vehicle Fleet on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Antti Lajunen

    (Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, Koetilantie 5, 00790 Helsinki, Finland)

  • Klaus Kivekäs

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Otakaari 4, 02150 Espoo, Finland)

  • Jari Vepsäläinen

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Otakaari 4, 02150 Espoo, Finland)

  • Kari Tammi

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Aalto University, Otakaari 4, 02150 Espoo, Finland)

Abstract

Different estimations have been presented for the amount of electric vehicles in the future. These estimations rarely take into account any realistic dynamics of the vehicle fleet. The objective of this paper is to analyze recently presented future scenarios about the passenger vehicle fleet estimations and create a foundation for the development of a fleet estimation model for passenger cars dedicated to the Finnish vehicle market conditions. The specific conditions of the Finnish light-duty vehicle fleet are taken into account as boundary conditions for the model development. The fleet model can be used for the estimation of emissions-optimal future vehicle fleets and the evaluation of the carbon dioxide emissions of transportation. The emission analysis was done for four different scenarios of the passenger vehicle fleet development in Finland. The results show that the high average age of the fleet and high number of older gasoline vehicles will slow down the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions during the next five to ten years even with a high adoption rate of electric vehicles. It can be concluded that lowering the average age, increasing biofuel mixing ratios, and increasing the amount of rechargeable electric vehicles are the most effective measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions of the Finnish passenger vehicle fleet in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Antti Lajunen & Klaus Kivekäs & Jari Vepsäläinen & Kari Tammi, 2020. "Influence of Increasing Electrification of Passenger Vehicle Fleet on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Finland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:12:p:5032-:d:373802
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/12/5032/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/12/5032/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helgeson, Broghan & Peter, Jakob, 2020. "The role of electricity in decarbonizing European road transport – Development and assessment of an integrated multi-sectoral model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Eunsung Kim & Eunnyeong Heo, 2019. "Key Drivers behind the Adoption of Electric Vehicle in Korea: An Analysis of the Revealed Preferences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N., 2015. "Uncertainty and differences in GHG emissions between electric and conventional gasoline vehicles with implications for transport policy making," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-7.
    4. Jochem, Patrick & Babrowski, Sonja & Fichtner, Wolf, 2015. "Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 68-83.
    5. Tsiakmakis, Stefanos & Fontaras, Georgios & Ciuffo, Biagio & Samaras, Zissis, 2017. "A simulation-based methodology for quantifying European passenger car fleet CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 447-465.
    6. Wu, Geng & Inderbitzin, Alessandro & Bening, Catharina, 2015. "Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles: A probabilistic analysis and projection across market segments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 196-214.
    7. Noori, Mehdi & Tatari, Omer, 2016. "Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 215-230.
    8. Hidrue, Michael K. & Parsons, George R. & Kempton, Willett & Gardner, Meryl P., 2011. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and their attributes," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 686-705, September.
    9. Tomáš Skrúcaný & Martin Kendra & Ondrej Stopka & Saša Milojević & Tomasz Figlus & Csaba Csiszár, 2019. "Impact of the Electric Mobility Implementation on the Greenhouse Gases Production in Central European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    10. Bamidele Victor Ayodele & Siti Indati Mustapa, 2020. "Life Cycle Cost Assessment of Electric Vehicles: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Trost, Tobias & Sterner, Michael & Bruckner, Thomas, 2017. "Impact of electric vehicles and synthetic gaseous fuels on final energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Germany based on long-term vehicle fleet modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1215-1225.
    12. Hardman, Scott & Chandan, Amrit & Tal, Gil & Turrentine, Tom, 2017. "The effectiveness of financial purchase incentives for battery electric vehicles – A review of the evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1100-1111.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maksymilian Mądziel, 2023. "Liquified Petroleum Gas-Fuelled Vehicle CO 2 Emission Modelling Based on Portable Emission Measurement System, On-Board Diagnostics Data, and Gradient-Boosting Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Mohammad Shadnam Zarbil & Abolfazl Vahedi & Hossein Azizi Moghaddam & Pavel Aleksandrovich Khlyupin, 2022. "Design and Sizing of Electric Bus Flash Charger Based on a Flywheel Energy Storage System: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Rafael R. Maes & Geert Potters & Erik Fransen & Rowan Van Schaeren & Silvia Lenaerts, 2022. "Influence of Adding Low Concentration of Oxygenates in Mineral Diesel Oil and Biodiesel on the Concentration of NO, NO 2 and Particulate Matter in the Exhaust Gas of a One-Cylinder Diesel Generator," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Bernhard Faessler, 2021. "Stationary, Second Use Battery Energy Storage Systems and Their Applications: A Research Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Jan Kunkler & Maximilian Braun & Florian Kellner, 2021. "Speed Limit Induced CO 2 Reduction on Motorways: Enhancing Discussion Transparency through Data Enrichment of Road Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Anne Magdalene Syré & Florian Heining & Dietmar Göhlich, 2020. "Method for a Multi-Vehicle, Simulation-Based Life Cycle Assessment and Application to Berlin’s Motorized Individual Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-26, September.
    7. Viri, Riku & Mäkinen, Johanna & Liimatainen, Heikki, 2021. "Modelling car fleet renewal in Finland: A model and development speed-based scenarios," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 63-79.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gábor Horváth & Attila Bai & Sándor Szegedi & István Lázár & Csongor Máthé & László Huzsvai & Máté Zakar & Zoltán Gabnai & Tamás Tóth, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review of the Distinctive Tendencies of the Diffusion of E-Mobility in Central Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-29, July.
    2. Schwab, Julia & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2022. "Electric Vehicle Cost in 2035: The impact of market penetration and charging strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Ma, Shao-Chao & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Willingness to pay and preferences for alternative incentives to EV purchase subsidies: An empirical study in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 197-215.
    5. Sun, Xiaohua & Liu, Xiaoling & Wang, Yun & Yuan, Fang, 2019. "The effects of public subsidies on emerging industry: An agent-based model of the electric vehicle industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 281-295.
    6. Almeida Neves, Sónia & Cardoso Marques, António & Alberto Fuinhas, José, 2019. "Technological progress and other factors behind the adoption of electric vehicles: Empirical evidence for EU countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 28-39.
    7. Austmann, Leonhard M., 2021. "Drivers of the electric vehicle market: A systematic literature review of empirical studies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    8. Sun, Lishan & Huang, Yuchen & Liu, Shuli & Chen, Yanyan & Yao, Liya & Kashyap, Anil, 2017. "A completive survey study on the feasibility and adaptation of EVs in Beijing, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 128-139.
    9. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    10. Felix Hinnüber & Marek Szarucki & Katarzyna Szopik-Depczyńska, 2019. "The Effects of a First-Time Experience on the Evaluation of Battery Electric Vehicles by Potential Consumers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie & Zhang, Hongzhi, 2017. "The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 800-816.
    12. Makena Coffman & Paul Bernstein & Sherilyn Wee, 2017. "Electric vehicles revisited: a review of factors that affect adoption," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 79-93, January.
    13. Ji, Wei, 2018. "Data-Driven Behavior Analysis and Implications in Plug-in Electric Vehicle Policy Studies," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6dw4d18t, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    14. Burra, Lavan T. & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2023. "Free-Ridership in Subsidies for Company- and Private Electric Vehicles," Ruhr Economic Papers 1015, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Janusz Figura & Teresa Gądek-Hawlena, 2022. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Development of Electromobility in Poland. The Perspective of Companies in the Transport-Shipping-Logistics Sector: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    16. Silvia Tomasi & Alyona Zubaryeva & Cesare Pizzirani & Margherita Dal Col & Jessica Balest, 2021. "Propensity to Choose Electric Vehicles in Cross-Border Alpine Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    17. Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka & Filip Polak & Leszek Szczęch, 2022. "Water Power Plants Possibilities in Powering Electric Cars—Case Study: Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Siti Indati Mustapa & Bamidele Victor Ayodele & Waznatol Widad Mohamad Ishak & Freida Ozavize Ayodele, 2020. "Evaluation of Cost Competitiveness of Electric Vehicles in Malaysia Using Life Cycle Cost Analysis Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-14, June.
    19. Gabriel Ayobami Ogunkunbi & Havraz Khedhir Younis Al-Zibaree & Ferenc Meszaros, 2022. "Modeling and Evaluation of Market Incentives for Battery Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-11, April.
    20. Lopez, Neil Stephen & Tria, Lew Andrew & Tayo, Leo Allen & Cruzate, Rovinna Janel & Oppus, Carlos & Cabacungan, Paul & Isla, Igmedio & Ansay, Arjun & Garcia, Teodinis & Cabarrubias-Dela Cruz, Kevien &, 2021. "Societal cost-benefit analysis of electric vehicles in the Philippines with the inclusion of impacts to balance of payments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:12:p:5032-:d:373802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.