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Future Projected Changes in Local Evapotranspiration Coupled with Temperature and Precipitation Variation

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  • Xiuliang Yuan

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
    Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China)

  • Jie Bai

    (State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China)

Abstract

Evapotranspiration is the highest outgoing flux in the hydrological cycle in Xinjiang, Northwest China. Quantifying the temporal and spatial patterns of future evapotranspiration is vital to appropriately manage water resources in water shortage drylands. In this study, the Common Land Model (CoLM) was used to estimate the regional evapotranspiration during the period 2021–2050, and its projected changes in response to climate change under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were analyzed using the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique. The results indicated that the mean regional evapotranspiration was comparable under the two scenarios during 2021–2050, with a value of 127 (±11.9) mm/year under the RCP4.5 scenario, and 124 (±11.1) mm/year under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Compared to the historical period of 1996–2005, the annual mean evapotranspiration during 2041–2050 will marginally decrease by 0.3 mm under the RCP4.5 scenario and by 0.4 mm under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses show that the evapotranspiration in relative high altitudes of Xinjiang present strong variations. The SVD analyses suggest that the changes in evapotranspiration are more closely linked to local precipitation variations than to temperature. The results would provide reliable suggestions to understand future changed in evapotranspiration and improve the regional strategy for water resource management in Xinjiang.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiuliang Yuan & Jie Bai, 2018. "Future Projected Changes in Local Evapotranspiration Coupled with Temperature and Precipitation Variation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:9:p:3281-:d:169784
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    1. Richard A. Betts & Olivier Boucher & Matthew Collins & Peter M. Cox & Peter D. Falloon & Nicola Gedney & Deborah L. Hemming & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & David M. H. Sexton & Mark J. Webb, 2007. "Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7157), pages 1037-1041, August.
    2. Li, Chaofan & Zhang, Chi & Luo, Geping & Chen, Xi, 2013. "Modeling the carbon dynamics of the dryland ecosystems in Xinjiang, China from 1981 to 2007—The spatiotemporal patterns and climate controls," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 267(C), pages 148-157.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamila Ablikim & Han Yang & Azimatjan Mamattursun, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation of Evapotranspiration and Its Driving Factors in the Urumqi River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Yang Wang & Shuai Zhang & Xueer Chang, 2020. "Evapotranspiration Estimation Based on Remote Sensing and the SEBAL Model in the Bosten Lake Basin of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.

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    Keywords

    evapotranspiration; CoLM; EOF; SVD;
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