IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i7p2408-d157248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Dynamic Failure Rate Forecasting Model for Service Parts Inventory

Author

Listed:
  • Ta-Yu Chen

    (Department of Management Information Systems, National Chengchi University, No. 64, Sec. 2, Zhi-Nan Rd., Wenshan District, Taipei 11605, Taiwan)

  • Woo-Tsong Lin

    (Department of Management Information Systems, National Chengchi University, No. 64, Sec. 2, Zhi-Nan Rd., Wenshan District, Taipei 11605, Taiwan)

  • Chwen Sheu

    (Department of Management, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA)

Abstract

This study investigates one of the reverse logistics issues, after-sale repair service for in-warranty products. After-sale repair service is critical to customer service and customer satisfaction. Nonetheless, the uncertainty in the number of defective products returned makes forecasting and inventory planning of service parts difficult, which leads to a backlog of returned defectives or an increase in inventory costs. Based on Bathtub Curve (BTC) theory and Markov Decision Process (MDP), this study develops a dynamic product failure rate forecasting (PFRF) model to enable third-party repair service providers to effectively predict the demand for service parts and, thus, mitigate risk impacts of over- or under-stocking of service parts. A simulation experiment, based on the data collected from a 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) firm, and a sensitivity analysis are conducted to validate the proposed model. The proposed model outperforms other approaches from previous studies. Considering the number of new products launched every year, the model could yield significant inventory cost savings. Managerial and research implications of our findings are presented, with suggestions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Ta-Yu Chen & Woo-Tsong Lin & Chwen Sheu, 2018. "A Dynamic Failure Rate Forecasting Model for Service Parts Inventory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2408-:d:157248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/7/2408/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/7/2408/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krumwiede, Dennis W. & Sheu, Chwen, 2002. "A model for reverse logistics entry by third-party providers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 325-333, October.
    2. Hsueh, Che-Fu, 2011. "An inventory control model with consideration of remanufacturing and product life cycle," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 645-652, October.
    3. Moritz Fleischmann & Jo A. E. E. van Nunen & Ben Gräve, 2003. "Integrating Closed-Loop Supply Chains and Spare-Parts Management at IBM," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 44-56, December.
    4. Sebnem Ahiska, S. & King, Russell E., 2010. "Inventory optimization in a one product recoverable manufacturing system," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 11-19, March.
    5. Zu-Jun Ma & Qin Zhou & Ying Dai & Gao-Feng Guan, 2018. "To License or Not to License Remanufacturing Business?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Behfard, S. & van der Heijden, M.C. & Al Hanbali, A. & Zijm, W.H.M., 2015. "Last time buy and repair decisions for spare parts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(2), pages 498-510.
    7. de Brito, M.P. & Flapper, S.D.P. & Dekker, R., 2002. "Reverse logistics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Thomas Spengler & Marcus Schröter, 2003. "Strategic Management of Spare Parts in Closed-Loop Supply Chains—A System Dynamics Approach," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 7-17, December.
    9. Wei Yan & Hengyu Li & Junwu Chai & Zhifeng Qian & Hong Chen, 2018. "Owning or Outsourcing? Strategic Choice on Take-Back Operations for Third-Party Remanufacturing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Ahiska, S. Sebnem & King, Russell E., 2010. "Life cycle inventory policy characterizations for a single-product recoverable system," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 51-61, March.
    11. Gérard P. Cachon & Marshall Fisher, 2000. "Supply Chain Inventory Management and the Value of Shared Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1032-1048, August.
    12. van der Laan, Erwin & Salomon, Marc & Dekker, Rommert, 1999. "An investigation of lead-time effects in manufacturing/remanufacturing systems under simple PUSH and PULL control strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 195-214, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen-lung Yang & Suyuan Lien, 2018. "Governance Mechanisms for Green Supply Chain Partnership," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dingyue Zhang & Xuemei Zhang & Bin Shi & Jian Cao & Gengui Zhou, 2018. "Collection and Remanufacturing of Waste Products under Patent Protection and Government Regulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Hu, Qiwei & Boylan, John E. & Chen, Huijing & Labib, Ashraf, 2018. "OR in spare parts management: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(2), pages 395-414.
    3. Kilic, Onur A. & Tunc, Huseyin & Tarim, S. Armagan, 2018. "Heuristic policies for the stochastic economic lot sizing problem with remanufacturing under service level constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 1102-1109.
    4. Ketzenberg, M.E. & van der Laan, E.A. & Teunter, R.H., 2004. "The Value of Information in Reverse Logistics," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-053-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    5. Agrawal, Saurabh & Singh, Rajesh K. & Murtaza, Qasim, 2016. "Outsourcing decisions in reverse logistics: Sustainable balanced scorecard and graph theoretic approach," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 41-53.
    6. Alena Klapalová, 2012. "Reverse logistics and 3PL in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(7), pages 163-170.
    7. Nenes, George & Panagiotidou, Sofia & Dekker, Rommert, 2010. "Inventory control policies for inspection and remanufacturing of returns: A case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 300-312, June.
    8. Hsueh, Che-Fu, 2011. "An inventory control model with consideration of remanufacturing and product life cycle," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 645-652, October.
    9. Ahiska, S. Sebnem & Appaji, Samyuktha R. & King, Russell E. & Warsing, Donald P., 2013. "A Markov decision process-based policy characterization approach for a stochastic inventory control problem with unreliable sourcing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 485-496.
    10. Kilic, Onur A. & Tunc, Huseyin, 2019. "Heuristics for the stochastic economic lot sizing problem with remanufacturing under backordering costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(3), pages 880-892.
    11. Ehsan Shekarian & Simme Douwe Flapper, 2021. "Analyzing the Structure of Closed-Loop Supply Chains: A Game Theory Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-32, January.
    12. Jalil, M.N. & Zuidwijk, R.A. & Fleischmann, M. & van Nunen, J.A.E.E., 2009. "Spare Parts Logistics and Installed Base Information," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-002-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    13. Gan, Shu San & Pujawan, I. Nyoman & Suparno, & Widodo, Basuki, 2015. "Pricing decision model for new and remanufactured short-life cycle products with time-dependent demand," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Seifert, Ralf W. & Tancrez, Jean-Sébastien & Biçer, Işık, 2016. "Dynamic product portfolio management with life cycle considerations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P1), pages 71-83.
    15. Kleber, Rainer & Quariguasi Frota Neto, João & Reimann, Marc, 2023. "The role of part failure rates asymmetry and spare part proprietariness on remanufacturing decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(1), pages 185-200.
    16. Agrawal, Saurabh & Singh, Rajesh K. & Murtaza, Qasim, 2015. "A literature review and perspectives in reverse logistics," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 76-92.
    17. M N Jalil & R A Zuidwijk & M Fleischmann & Jo A E E van Nunen, 2011. "Spare parts logistics and installed base information," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 442-457, March.
    18. Mabel C. Chou & Chee-Khian Sim & Xue-Ming Yuan, 2020. "Policies for inventory models with product returns forecast from past demands and past sales," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 288(1), pages 137-180, May.
    19. Zolfagharinia, Hossein & Hafezi, Maryam & Farahani, Reza Zanjirani & Fahimnia, Behnam, 2014. "A hybrid two-stock inventory control model for a reverse supply chain," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 141-161.
    20. Pokharel, Shaligram & Mutha, Akshay, 2009. "Perspectives in reverse logistics: A review," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 175-182.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2408-:d:157248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.