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Evaluation and Prediction of City Sustainability Using MCDM and Stochastic Simulation Methods

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  • Pingtao Yi

    (School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110167, China
    Northeastern Evaluation Center, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110167, China)

  • Weiwei Li

    (School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110167, China
    Northeastern Evaluation Center, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110167, China)

  • Lingyu Li

    (School of Economics & Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China)

Abstract

City sustainability is an important issue in the urbanization process. In this paper, the sustainability of 14 cities in Liaoning province in China is evaluated and predicted. The process of evaluating city sustainability is viewed as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. A simple additive weighting method is used for aggregating the normalized sustainability criteria data, built based on the three-pillar model and the associated weights. The results indicate that although the sustainability of the cities in Liaoning province is not perfect, the cities show better development momentum. For example, only two cities’ (Shenyang and Dalian) average performance scores in 2010–2016 were over 0.5, but all the cities’ sustainability improved in 2016 compared to 2010. We develop a stochastic simulation procedure used for predicting a city’s sustainability in future years. Many prediction results were obtained, including the maximum, minimum, and average performance scores of the cities, the pairwise priority matrix representing the ratio of one city outperforming another, and the ranking of cities’ sustainability with probabilities. The prediction results indicate various degrees of increase for almost all the cities’ sustainability in the future, which is consistent with the judgment of better development momentum determined from the evaluation results. Moreover, the cities of Dandong, Panjin may exceed Shenyang, Dalian, and rank in the top among all the cities in future years.

Suggested Citation

  • Pingtao Yi & Weiwei Li & Lingyu Li, 2018. "Evaluation and Prediction of City Sustainability Using MCDM and Stochastic Simulation Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3771-:d:176702
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Zhou & Weiwei Li & Pingtao Yi & Chengju Gong, 2019. "Evaluation of City Sustainability from the Perspective of Behavioral Guidance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Pingtao Yi & Weiwei Li & Danning Zhang, 2019. "Assessment of City Sustainability Using MCDM with Interdependent Criteria Weight," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Ali Asghar Aliloo & Sharhryar Dashti, 2021. "Rural sustainability assessment using a combination of multi-criteria decision making and factor analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6323-6336, April.
    4. Pingtao Yi & Lu Wang & Danning Zhang & Weiwei Li, 2019. "Sustainability Assessment of Provincial-Level Regions in China Using Composite Sustainable Indicator," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Mohamed Hanine & Omar Boutkhoum & Fatima El Barakaz & Mohamed Lachgar & Noureddine Assad & Furqan Rustam & Imran Ashraf, 2021. "An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Approach for Smart City Development Evaluation for Developing Countries: Moroccan Context," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-22, October.

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