IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v10y2018i6p1700-d148536.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model and AHP Weighting Uncertainty Analysis for Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Units

Author

Listed:
  • Dianfa Wu

    (National Research Center for Thermal Power Engineering and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Zhiping Yang

    (National Research Center for Thermal Power Engineering and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Ningling Wang

    (National Research Center for Thermal Power Engineering and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Chengzhou Li

    (National Research Center for Thermal Power Engineering and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Yongping Yang

    (National Research Center for Thermal Power Engineering and Technology, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

The transformation of the power generation industry from coal-based to more sustainable energy sources is an irreversible trend. In China, the coal-fired power plant, as the main electric power supply facility at present, needs to know its own sustainability level to face the future competition. A hybrid multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model is proposed in this paper to assess the sustainability levels of the existing Chinese coal-fired power units. The areal grey relational analysis (AGRA) method is involved in the hybrid model, and a combined weighting method is used to determine the priorities of the criteria. The combining weight fuses the fuzzy rough set (FRS) and entropy objective weighting method together with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) subjective weighting method by game theory. Moreover, an AHP weighting uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is introduced to measure the uncertainty of the results, and a 95 percent confidence interval (CI) is defined as the uncertainty measurement of the alternatives. A case study about eight coal-fired power units is carried out with a criteria system, which contains five aspects in an operational perspective, such as the flexibility, economic, environmental, reliability and technical criterion. The sustainability assessment is performed at the unit level, and the results give a priority rank of the eight alternatives; additionally, the uncertainty analysis supplies the extra information from a statistical perspective. This work expands a novel hybrid MCDM method to the sustainability assessment of the power generation systems, and it may be a benefit to the energy enterprises in assessing the sustainability at the unit level and enhance its ability in future sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Dianfa Wu & Zhiping Yang & Ningling Wang & Chengzhou Li & Yongping Yang, 2018. "An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model and AHP Weighting Uncertainty Analysis for Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Units," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-27, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:1700-:d:148536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/1700/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/1700/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bilgen, Selçuk & Sarıkaya, İkbal, 2015. "Exergy for environment, ecology and sustainable development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1115-1131.
    2. Elena Arce, María & Saavedra, Ángeles & Míguez, José L. & Granada, Enrique, 2015. "The use of grey-based methods in multi-criteria decision analysis for the evaluation of sustainable energy systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 924-932.
    3. Fanhui Zeng & Xiaozhao Cheng & Jianchun Guo & Liang Tao & Zhangxin Chen, 2017. "Hybridising Human Judgment, AHP, Grey Theory, and Fuzzy Expert Systems for Candidate Well Selection in Fractured Reservoirs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Atilgan, Burcin & Azapagic, Adisa, 2016. "An integrated life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity generation in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 168-186.
    5. Huiru Zhao & Nana Li, 2016. "Performance Evaluation for Sustainability of Strong Smart Grid by Using Stochastic AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Ji, Xiang & Li, Guo & Wang, Zhaohua, 2017. "Impact of emission regulation policies on Chinese power firms’ reusable environmental investments and sustainable operations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 163-177.
    7. Carmone, Frank J. & Kara, Ali & Zanakis, Stelios H., 1997. "A Monte Carlo investigation of incomplete pairwise comparison matrices in AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 538-553, November.
    8. Phillips, Jason, 2013. "Determining the sustainability of large-scale photovoltaic solar power plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 435-444.
    9. Kubik, M.L. & Coker, P.J. & Barlow, J.F., 2015. "Increasing thermal plant flexibility in a high renewables power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 102-111.
    10. Diaz-Balteiro, L & González-Pachón, J. & Romero, C., 2017. "Measuring systems sustainability with multi-criteria methods: A critical review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(2), pages 607-616.
    11. Whiting, Kai & Carmona, Luis Gabriel & Sousa, Tânia, 2017. "A review of the use of exergy to evaluate the sustainability of fossil fuels and non-fuel mineral depletion," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 202-211.
    12. Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Peng & Wang, Yang & Liu, Qian & Shen, Xinyi & Zhang, Kai & Dong, Liansai, 2016. "Coal power overcapacity and investment bubble in China during 2015–2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 136-144.
    13. Wang, Jiang-Jiang & Jing, You-Yin & Zhang, Chun-Fa & Zhao, Jun-Hong, 2009. "Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2263-2278, December.
    14. A. Dinmohammadi & M. Shafiee, 2017. "Determination of the Most Suitable Technology Transfer Strategy for Wind Turbines Using an Integrated AHP-TOPSIS Decision Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, May.
    15. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Xiaoyu Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Xushu Wu & Shiwei Zhao, 2015. "A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1243-1259, June.
    16. Thomas L. Saaty, 1994. "How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(6), pages 19-43, December.
    17. Lingjie Sun & Yingyi Liu & Boyang Zhang & Yuwei Shang & Haiwen Yuan & Zhao Ma, 2016. "An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-22, August.
    18. Kopiske, Jakob & Spieker, Sebastian & Tsatsaronis, George, 2017. "Value of power plant flexibility in power systems with high shares of variable renewables: A scenario outlook for Germany 2035," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 823-833.
    19. Rosenbloom, E. S., 1997. "A probabilistic interpretation of the final rankings in AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-378, January.
    20. Huiru Zhao & Nana Li, 2016. "Optimal Siting of Charging Stations for Electric Vehicles Based on Fuzzy Delphi and Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approaches from an Extended Sustainability Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, April.
    21. Burcin Atilgan & Adisa Azapagic, 2016. "Assessing the Environmental Sustainability of Electricity Generation in Turkey on a Life Cycle Basis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, January.
    22. Škobalj, P. & Kijevčanin, M. & Afgan, N. & Jovanović, M. & Turanjanin, V. & Vučićević, B., 2017. "Multi-criteria sustainability analysis of thermal power plant Kolubara-A Unit 2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 837-847.
    23. Xu, Gang & Yang, Yong-ping & Lu, Shi-yuan & Li, Le & Song, Xiaona, 2011. "Comprehensive evaluation of coal-fired power plants based on grey relational analysis and analytic hierarchy process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2343-2351, May.
    24. Xiaoyang Sun & Baosheng Zhang & Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Mikael Höök, 2016. "Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, November.
    25. Su, M.R. & Yang, Z.F. & Chen, B. & Ulgiati, S., 2009. "Urban ecosystem health assessment based on emergy and set pair analysis—A comparative study of typical Chinese cities," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(18), pages 2341-2348.
    26. Pan, Hengyu & Geng, Yong & Jiang, Ping & Dong, Huijuan & Sun, Lu & Wu, Rui, 2018. "An emergy based sustainability evaluation on a combined landfill and LFG power generation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 310-322.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mateusz Piwowarski & Danuta Miłaszewicz & Małgorzata Łatuszyńska & Mariusz Borawski & Kesra Nermend, 2018. "Application of the Vector Measure Construction Method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution for the Analysis of the Dynamics of Changes in the Poverty Levels in the European ," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-24, August.
    2. Alexandre Bevilacqua Leoneti & René Bañares-Alcántara & Eduardo Cleto Pires & Sonia Valle Walter Borges Oliveira, 2022. "A Multi-Criteria and Multi-Agent Framework for supporting complex decision-making processes," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1025-1050, October.
    3. Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Payam Khazaelpour & Fausto Cavallaro, 2018. "The Multi-Aspect Criterion in the PMADM Outline and Its Possible Application to Sustainability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Li-Ming Chien & Kung-Jen Tu, 2021. "Establishing Merger Feasibility Simulation Model Based on Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Method: Case Study of Taiwan’s Property Management Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Olawale Ogunrinde & Ekundayo Shittu, 2023. "Benchmarking performance of photovoltaic power plants in multiple periods," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 489-503, September.
    6. Diankai Wang & Inna Gryshova & Anush Balian & Mykola Kyzym & Tetiana Salashenko & Viktoriia Khaustova & Olexandr Davidyuk, 2022. "Assessment of Power System Sustainability and Compromises between the Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Marcin Rabe & Dalia Streimikiene & Yuriy Bilan, 2019. "The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    8. Ehsan Javanmardi & Sifeng Liu & Naiming Xie, 2020. "Exploring Grey Systems Theory-Based Methods and Applications in Sustainability Studies: A Systematic Review Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-32, May.
    9. Liang Wang & Qingbiao Guo & Xuexiang Yu, 2023. "Stability-Level Evaluation of the Construction Site above the Goaf Based on Combination Weighting and Cloud Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, April.
    10. N. Aktaş & N. Demirel, 2021. "A hybrid framework for evaluating corporate sustainability using multi-criteria decision making," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 15591-15618, October.
    11. Zenonas Turskis & Nikolaj Goranin & Assel Nurusheva & Seilkhan Boranbayev, 2019. "A Fuzzy WASPAS-Based Approach to Determine Critical Information Infrastructures of EU Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-25, January.
    12. T. Sivageerthi & Bathrinath Sankaranarayanan & Syed Mithun Ali & Ali AlArjani & Koppiahraj Karuppiah, 2022. "Modeling Challenges for Improving the Heat Rate Performance in a Thermal Power Plant: Implications for SDGs in Energy Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Collins, Benjamin C. & Kumral, Mustafa, 2020. "Game theory for analyzing and improving environmental management in the mining industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Xiaolong Yang & Dongxiao Niu & Meng Chen & Keke Wang & Qian Wang & Xiaomin Xu, 2020. "An Operation Benefit Analysis and Decision Model of Thermal Power Enterprises in China against the Background of Large-Scale New Energy Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Konstantinos G. Aravossis & Vasilis C. Kapsalis & Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos & Theofanis G. Xouleis, 2019. "Development of a Holistic Assessment Framework for Industrial Organizations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-24, July.
    16. Nima Pirhadi & Xiaowei Tang & Qing Yang & Fei Kang, 2018. "A New Equation to Evaluate Liquefaction Triggering Using the Response Surface Method and Parametric Sensitivity Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    17. Anu P. Alex & V. S. Manju & V. Hima & Leema Peter, 2023. "Assessment of sustainable mobility indicators for an emerging satellite city in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 10447-10463, September.
    18. Wioletta Lipka & Cezary Szwed, 2021. "Multi-Attribute Rating Method for Selecting a Clean Coal Energy Generation Technology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baudry, Gino & Macharis, Cathy & Vallée, Thomas, 2018. "Range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis: A combined method of Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to support participatory decision making under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 257-269.
    2. Saraswat, S.K. & Digalwar, Abhijeet K., 2021. "Empirical investigation and validation of sustainability indicators for the assessment of energy sources in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Lingjie Sun & Yingyi Liu & Boyang Zhang & Yuwei Shang & Haiwen Yuan & Zhao Ma, 2016. "An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Transformer Condition Assessment Using Game Theory and Modified Evidence Combination Extended by D Numbers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-22, August.
    4. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Graciele Rediske & Carmen Brum Rosa & Natália Gava Gastaldo & Leandro Michels & Alvaro Luiz Neuenfeldt Júnior & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk, 2020. "Renewable Energy Problems: Exploring the Methods to Support the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    5. Lefeng Cheng & Tao Yu & Guoping Wang & Bo Yang & Lv Zhou, 2018. "Hot Spot Temperature and Grey Target Theory-Based Dynamic Modelling for Reliability Assessment of Transformer Oil-Paper Insulation Systems: A Practical Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    6. Muhammad Riaz & Wojciech Sałabun & Hafiz Muhammad Athar Farid & Nawazish Ali & Jarosław Wątróbski, 2020. "A Robust q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Information Aggregation Using Einstein Operations with Application to Sustainable Energy Planning Decision Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-39, May.
    7. Catalina Ferat Toscano & Cecilia Martin-del-Campo & Gabriela Moeller-Chavez & Gabriel Leon de los Santos & Juan-Luis François & Daniel Revollo Fernandez, 2019. "Life Cycle Assessment of a Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine with a Focus on the Chemicals Used in Water Conditioning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-24, May.
    8. Ewa Roszkowska & Bartłomiej Jefmański, 2021. "Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Synthetic Measure (I-VIFSM) Based on Hellwig’s Approach in the Analysis of Survey Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Weixin Yang & Lingguang Li, 2017. "Efficiency Evaluation and Policy Analysis of Industrial Wastewater Control in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    10. Yasir Ahmed Solangi & Qingmei Tan & Muhammad Waris Ali Khan & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Ifzal Ahmed, 2018. "The Selection of Wind Power Project Location in the Southeastern Corridor of Pakistan: A Factor Analysis, AHP, and Fuzzy-TOPSIS Application," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, July.
    11. Song, Cuihong & Gardner, Kevin H. & Klein, Sharon J.W. & Souza, Simone Pereira & Mo, Weiwei, 2018. "Cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas emissions from dams in the United States of America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 945-956.
    12. M. A. Parvez Mahmud & Nazmul Huda & Shahjadi Hisan Farjana & Candace Lang, 2018. "Environmental Impacts of Solar-Photovoltaic and Solar-Thermal Systems with Life-Cycle Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    13. Murillo Vetroni Barros & Cassiano Moro Piekarski & Antonio Carlos De Francisco, 2018. "Carbon Footprint of Electricity Generation in Brazil: An Analysis of the 2016–2026 Period," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, June.
    14. Rekha Guchhait & Biswajit Sarkar, 2023. "Increasing Growth of Renewable Energy: A State of Art," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-29, March.
    15. Hocine, Amine, 2018. "Meta goal programing approach for solving multi-criteria de Novo programing problemAuthor-Name: Zhuang, Zheng-Yun," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(1), pages 228-238.
    16. Mardani, Abbas & Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras & Khalifah, Zainab & Zakuan, Norhayati & Jusoh, Ahmad & Nor, Khalil Md & Khoshnoudi, Masoumeh, 2017. "A review of multi-criteria decision-making applications to solve energy management problems: Two decades from 1995 to 2015," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 216-256.
    17. Calabrese, Armando & Costa, Roberta & Levialdi, Nathan & Menichini, Tamara, 2019. "Integrating sustainability into strategic decision-making: A fuzzy AHP method for the selection of relevant sustainability issues," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 155-168.
    18. Junxue Zhang & Lin Ma, 2021. "Urban ecological security dynamic analysis based on an innovative emergy ecological footprint method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(11), pages 16163-16191, November.
    19. Pingtao Yi & Weiwei Li & Lingyu Li, 2018. "Evaluation and Prediction of City Sustainability Using MCDM and Stochastic Simulation Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, October.
    20. Chunning Na & Huan Pan & Yuhong Zhu & Jiahai Yuan & Lixia Ding & Jungang Yu, 2019. "The Flexible Operation of Coal Power and Its Renewable Integration Potential in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:1700-:d:148536. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.