IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v6y2017i4p82-d119496.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying Hot Spots of Critical Forage Supply in Dryland Nomadic Pastoralist Areas: A Case Study for the Afar Region, Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • B. G. J. S. Sonneveld

    (Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • C. F. A. Van Wesenbeeck

    (Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • M. A. Keyzer

    (Amsterdam Centre for World Food Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • F. Beyene

    (College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia)

  • K. Georgis

    (GEOSAS Consultancies, P.O. Box 787, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

  • F. Urbano

    (Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

  • M. Meroni

    (Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

  • O. Leo

    (Sustainable Resources, Food Security Unit, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

  • M. K. Yimer

    (Water Resource and Irrigation Engineering department. Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, P.O. Box 138, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia)

  • M. Abdullatif

    (Afar Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Research Institute, P.O. Box 16, Semara, Ethiopia)

Abstract

This study develops a methodology to identify hot spots of critical forage supply in nomadic pastoralist areas, using the Afar Region, Ethiopia, as a special case. It addresses two main problems. First, it makes a spatially explicit assessment of fodder supply and demand extracted from a data poor environment. Fodder supply is assessed by combining rainfall-based production functions and rule-based assessment for prevailing land use. Fodder demand is based on a data consistency check of livestock statistics concerning herd size, composition and geographical distribution. Second, individual herd movements have to be evaluated jointly in concurrent migration patterns to assess local pressures on fodder resources. We, therefore, apply a transition model that relates stock levels to seasonal migration routings for all Afar sub-clans jointly so as to localize the hot spots where feed demand exceeds forage supply. Critical areas come to the fore, especially, near fringes of Highlands and in the southern part of the Afar. A sensitivity test shows that ‘Baseline’ scenario is close to the ‘Best’ but under ‘Worst’, the Afar region would fall into despair. We conclude that the model is a useful tool to inform policy makers on critical areas in the Afar region.

Suggested Citation

  • B. G. J. S. Sonneveld & C. F. A. Van Wesenbeeck & M. A. Keyzer & F. Beyene & K. Georgis & F. Urbano & M. Meroni & O. Leo & M. K. Yimer & M. Abdullatif, 2017. "Identifying Hot Spots of Critical Forage Supply in Dryland Nomadic Pastoralist Areas: A Case Study for the Afar Region, Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-31, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:82-:d:119496
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/6/4/82/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/6/4/82/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ebrahimi, A. & Milotić, T. & Hoffmann, M., 2010. "A herbivore specific grazing capacity model accounting for spatio-temporal environmental variation: A tool for a more sustainable nature conservation and rangeland management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(6), pages 900-910.
    2. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
    3. Hundie, Bekele, 2006. "Explaining Changes of Property Rights among Afar Pastoralists, Ethiopia," Institutional Change in Agriculture and Natural Resources Discussion Papers 18833, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adane Kebede Gebeyehu & Ben G. J. S. Sonneveld & Denyse J. Snelder, 2021. "Identifying Hotspots of Overgrazing in Pastoral Areas: Livestock Mobility and Fodder Supply–Demand Balances in Nyangatom, Lower Omo Valley, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tristan Le Cotty & Bruno Dorin, 2012. "A global foresight on food crop needs for livestock," Post-Print hal-00800715, HAL.
    2. Fiala, Nathan, 2008. "Meeting the demand: An estimation of potential future greenhouse gas emissions from meat production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 412-419, October.
    3. Srivastava, S.K. & Mathur, V.C. & Sivaramane, N. & Kumar, Ranjit & Hasan, Rooba & Meena, P.C., 2013. "Unravelling Food Basket of Indian Households: Revisiting Underlying Changes and Future Food Demand," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(4), pages 1-17.
    4. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie‐Hélène Hubert & Michel Moreaux & Linda Nøstbakken, 2017. "Long‐Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(3), pages 733-767, July.
    5. de Boer, Joop & Helms, Martine & Aiking, Harry, 2006. "Protein consumption and sustainability: Diet diversity in EU-15," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 267-274, September.
    6. HUBERT Marie-Hélène & MOREAUX Michel, 2007. "The challenge of meeting the future food needs," LERNA Working Papers 07.17.238, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    7. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Wichelns, D. & Rockstrom, J. & Kemp-Benedict, E. & Eriyagama, Nishadi & Gordon, L. J. & Hanjra, M. A. & Hoogeveen, J. & Huber-Lee, A. & Karlberg, L., 2007. "Looking ahead to 2050: scenarios of alternative investment approaches," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Peters, Christian J. & Picardy, Jamie A. & Darrouzet-Nardi, Amelia & Griffin, Timothy S., 2014. "Feed conversions, ration compositions, and land use efficiencies of major livestock products in U.S. agricultural systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 35-43.
    9. Obi, Okey Francis, 2015. "Evaluation of the effect of palm oil mill sludge on the properties of sawdust briquette," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1749-1758.
    10. Wirsenius, Stefan & Azar, Christian & Berndes, Göran, 2010. "How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 621-638, November.
    11. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 142-155.
    12. de Boer, Joop & Aiking, Harry, 2011. "On the merits of plant-based proteins for global food security: Marrying macro and micro perspectives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1259-1265, May.
    13. Andreas W. Ebert, 2014. "Potential of Underutilized Traditional Vegetables and Legume Crops to Contribute to Food and Nutritional Security, Income and More Sustainable Production Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Michel Moreaux & Linda Nøstbakken, 2012. "Do Biofuel Mandates Raise Food Prices?," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201214, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    15. Odegard, I.Y.R. & van der Voet, E., 2014. "The future of food — Scenarios and the effect on natural resource use in agriculture in 2050," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 51-59.
    16. Hadjikakou, Michalis, 2017. "Trimming the excess: environmental impacts of discretionary food consumption in Australia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 119-128.
    17. Schmiess, Jacob S. & Lusk, Jayson L., 2022. "Tradeoff between Animal Welfare and Environmental Impacts of Beef Production: An Analysis of Presentation Effects on Consumer Choice," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(2), May.
    18. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: Production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 158-166.
    19. Masuda, Tadayoshi & Goldsmith, Peter D., 2012. "China's Meat and Egg Production and Soybean Meal Demand for Feed: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 1-20, September.
    20. Masuda, Tadayoshi & Goldsmith, Peter D., 2009. "World Soybean Demand: An Elasticity Analysis and Long-Term Projections," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49490, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:4:p:82-:d:119496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.