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On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The Center for Research on International Economics and Department of Economics, The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA)

  • Hanafiah Harvey

    (Department of Economics, Penn State University Mont Alto, Mont Alto, PA 17237, USA)

  • Farhang Niroomand

    (School of Business Administration, University of Huston-Victoria, Victoria, TX 77901, USA)

Abstract

Previous research has assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a few macro variables. In this paper, we consider its impact on oil prices. Oil prices are usually determined in global markets by the law of demand and supply. Our concern in this paper is to determine which country’s policy uncertainty measure has an impact on oil prices. Using both the linear and the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods, we find that while policy uncertainty measures of Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. have short-run effects, short-run effects last into the long-run asymmetric effects only in the case of China. This may reflect the importance and recent surge in China’s engagement in world trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Farhang Niroomand, 2018. "On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:12-:d:128355
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    Cited by:

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    3. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2018. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 251114, March.
    4. Nusair, Salah A. & Al-Khasawneh, Jamal A., 2022. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on the stock markets of the G7 Countries:A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    5. Arida, Agustina & Masbar, Raja & Majid, M. Shabri Abd. & Indra, I., 2023. "Does vertical asymmetric price transmission exist in the rice markets?," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(1), March.
    6. Jaka Sriyana & Jiyao Joanna Ge, 2019. "Asymmetric responses of fiscal policy to the inflation rate in Indonesia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1701-1713.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2019. "On the effects of policy uncertainty on stock prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 764-778, October.
    9. M Bahmani-Oskooee & H Harvey, 2023. "Whose Policy Uncertainty Matters in the Trade between Mexico and the US?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 28(2), pages 39-69, September.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "Whose Policy Uncertainty Matters in the Trade between Korea and the U.S.?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, November.
    11. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Pedro Salgado, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainties and business confidence in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 38-56.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2022. "Whose policy uncertainty matters in the trade between China and the U.S.?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1497-1542, August.
    13. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, March.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Mehrnoosh Hasanzade, 2022. "Policy uncertainty and income distribution: Asymmetric evidence from state‐level data in the United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 179-220, January.

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