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Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in the United States

Author

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Alice Kones
  • Ali Kutan

Abstract

Previous studies that included any uncertainty measure in the specification of the demand for money in the U.S. derived their measures either from volatility of nominal money supply or volatility of real GDP. However, other factors such as taxes, spending, regulation, the Fed’s announcements, budget deficits, etc. could also contribute to an uncertain environment. A new measure of uncertainty that accounts for all these factors is now constructed and published. In this paper we include this comprehensive new measure known as “policy uncertainty” in estimating the demand for M2 in the U.S. Empirical results show that this new uncertainty measure has short-run and long-run positive effect, implying that due to policy uncertainty Americans hold more cash and this could contribute to a prolonged recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Alice Kones & Ali Kutan, 2016. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in the United States," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(1), pages 37-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqaeq:v62_y2016_i1_q1_p37-49
    DOI: 10.3790/aeq.62.1.37
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2019. "On the effects of policy uncertainty on stock prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 764-778, October.
    2. Boucekkine, R. & Laksaci, M. & Touati-Tliba, M., 2021. "Long-run stability of money demand and monetary policy: The case of Algeria," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    3. S. M. Woahid Murad & Ruhul Salim & Md. Golam Kibria, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 451-470, September.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "Whose Policy Uncertainty Matters in the Trade between Korea and the U.S.?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 219-234, April.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2022. "Whose policy uncertainty matters in the trade between China and the U.S.?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1497-1542, August.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Farhang Niroomand, 2018. "On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, January.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Mehrnoosh Hasanzade, 2022. "Policy uncertainty and income distribution: Asymmetric evidence from state‐level data in the United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 179-220, January.
    9. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Rybiński, Krzysztof, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and natural language processing; The case of Russia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 546-562.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.

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