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Combining Bayesian Calibration and Copula Models for Age Estimation

Author

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  • Andrea Faragalli

    (Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy)

  • Edlira Skrami

    (Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy)

  • Andrea Bucci

    (Department of Economics, Università degli Studi G. d’Annunzio of Chieti-Pescara, 65127 Pescara, Italy
    Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, 62100 Macerata, Italy)

  • Rosaria Gesuita

    (Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy)

  • Roberto Cameriere

    (AgEstimation Project, University of Macerata, 62100 Macerata, Italy)

  • Flavia Carle

    (Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Luigi Ferrante

    (Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 60121 Ancona, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Accurately estimating and predicting chronological age from some anthropometric characteristics of an individual without an identity document can be crucial in the context of a growing number of forced migrants. In the related literature, the prediction of chronological age mostly relies upon the use of a single predictor, which is usually represented by a dental/skeletal maturity index, or multiple independent ordinal predictor (stage of maturation). This paper is the first attempt to combine a robust method to predict chronological age, such as Bayesian calibration, and the use of multiple continuous indices as predictors. The combination of these two aspects becomes possible due to the implementation of a complex statistical tool as the copula. Comparing the forecasts from our copula-based method with predictions from an independent model and two single predictor models, we showed that the accuracy increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Faragalli & Edlira Skrami & Andrea Bucci & Rosaria Gesuita & Roberto Cameriere & Flavia Carle & Luigi Ferrante, 2023. "Combining Bayesian Calibration and Copula Models for Age Estimation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:2:p:1201-:d:1030475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173, March.
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