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Dynamic Driving Mechanism of Dual Structural Effects on the Correlation between Economic Growth and CO 2 Emissions: Evidence from a Typical Transformation Region

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  • Yu Cai

    (College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
    Songliao River Basin Ecology and Environment Administration, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Changchun 130021, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Haiyan Duan

    (College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Zhiqiang Luo

    (Energy and Food Integrated Administrative Enforcement Detachment of Jinan City, Jinan 250000, China)

  • Zhiyuan Duan

    (College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

  • Xian’en Wang

    (College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China)

Abstract

How will the dual structural effects, represented by industrial structure and energy structure, affect the future correlation between economic growth and CO 2 emissions? Taking Jilin Province as an example, this study explores the dynamic driving mechanism of dual structural effects on the correlation between economic growth and CO 2 emissions by innovatively building an integrated simulation model from 1995 to 2015 and setting different scenarios from 2016 to 2050. Correspondingly, the concept of marginal utility and the method of variance decomposition analysis are introduced to reveal the mechanism. The results show that the energy structure is different while the industrial structure tends to be similar when CO 2 emissions reach the peak under different scenarios. The slower the dual structure adjustment, the more significant the upward trend appears before the peak. The contribution of the dual structural effects to CO 2 emissions caused by unit GDP growth is basically the same in peak year. With the transformation of socio-economy, the positive driving effect of the industrial structure will gradually weaken, while the negative driving effect of the energy structure will gradually increase. The methods and results presented can provide insights into sensible trade-offs of CO 2 emissions and economic growth in different countries/regions during structural transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Cai & Haiyan Duan & Zhiqiang Luo & Zhiyuan Duan & Xian’en Wang, 2022. "Dynamic Driving Mechanism of Dual Structural Effects on the Correlation between Economic Growth and CO 2 Emissions: Evidence from a Typical Transformation Region," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:3970-:d:780532
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    1. Zhen Yang & Weijun Gao, 2022. "Evaluating the Coordinated Development between Urban Greening and Economic Growth in Chinese Cities during 2005 to 2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-25, August.

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