IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v9y2016i10p800-d79808.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Approach to Obtain Synthetic Wind Power Forecasts for Integration Studies

Author

Listed:
  • Jon Olauson

    (Division of Electricity, Department of Engineering Sciences, Uppsala University, Box 534, 751 21 Uppsala, Sweden)

  • Johan Bladh

    (Vattenfall, Evenemangsgatan 13, 169 92 Solna, Sweden)

  • Joakim Lönnberg

    (Vattenfall, Evenemangsgatan 13, 169 92 Solna, Sweden)

  • Mikael Bergkvist

    (Division of Electricity, Department of Engineering Sciences, Uppsala University, Box 534, 751 21 Uppsala, Sweden)

Abstract

When performing wind integration studies, synthetic wind power forecasts are key elements. Historically, data from operational forecasting systems have been used sparsely, likely due to the high costs involved. Purely statistical methods for simulating wind power forecasts are more common,but have problems mimicking all relevant aspects of actual forecasts. Consequently, a new approach to obtain wind power forecasts for integration studies is proposed, relying on long time series of freely and globally available reforecasts. In order to produce synthetic forecasts with similar properties as operational ditto, some processing (noise addition and error reduction) is necessary. Validations with measurements from Belgium and Sweden show that the method is adequate; and distributions, correlations, autocorrelations and power spectral densities of forecast errors correspond well. Furthermore, abrupt changes when forecasts are updated and the existence of level and phase errors are reproduced. The influence from terrain complexity on error magnitude is promising, but more data is necessary for a proper validation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jon Olauson & Johan Bladh & Joakim Lönnberg & Mikael Bergkvist, 2016. "A New Approach to Obtain Synthetic Wind Power Forecasts for Integration Studies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:10:p:800-:d:79808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/800/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/9/10/800/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olauson, Jon & Bergström, Hans & Bergkvist, Mikael, 2016. "Restoring the missing high-frequency fluctuations in a wind power model based on reanalysis data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 784-791.
    2. Rasmussen, Morten Grud & Andresen, Gorm Bruun & Greiner, Martin, 2012. "Storage and balancing synergies in a fully or highly renewable pan-European power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 642-651.
    3. Pinson, P. & Girard, R., 2012. "Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 12-20.
    4. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu, 2014. "Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 357-363.
    5. Kern, Jordan D. & Patino-Echeverri, Dalia & Characklis, Gregory W., 2014. "An integrated reservoir-power system model for evaluating the impacts of wind integration on hydropower resources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 553-562.
    6. Heide, Dominik & Greiner, Martin & von Bremen, Lüder & Hoffmann, Clemens, 2011. "Reduced storage and balancing needs in a fully renewable European power system with excess wind and solar power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2515-2523.
    7. Becker, Sarah & Frew, Bethany A. & Andresen, Gorm B. & Zeyer, Timo & Schramm, Stefan & Greiner, Martin & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2014. "Features of a fully renewable US electricity system: Optimized mixes of wind and solar PV and transmission grid extensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 443-458.
    8. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    9. Olauson, Jon & Bergkvist, Mikael, 2015. "Modelling the Swedish wind power production using MERRA reanalysis data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 717-725.
    10. Le, Ngoc Anh & Bhattacharyya, Subhes C., 2011. "Integration of wind power into the British system in 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 5975-5983.
    11. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    12. Staffell, Iain & Green, Richard, 2014. "How does wind farm performance decline with age?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 775-786.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Martínez-Álvarez & Alicia Troncoso & José C. Riquelme, 2017. "Recent Advances in Energy Time Series Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-3, June.
    2. Shiyu Liu & Gengfeng Li & Haipeng Xie & Xifan Wang, 2017. "Correlation Characteristic Analysis for Wind Speed in Different Geographical Hierarchies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edmunds, R.K. & Cockerill, T.T. & Foxon, T.J. & Ingham, D.B. & Pourkashanian, M., 2014. "Technical benefits of energy storage and electricity interconnections in future British power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 577-587.
    2. Hdidouan, Daniel & Staffell, Iain, 2017. "The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 575-592.
    3. Diesendorf, Mark & Elliston, Ben, 2018. "The feasibility of 100% renewable electricity systems: A response to critics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 318-330.
    4. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    5. Ashfaq, Asad & Kamali, Zulqarnain Haider & Agha, Mujtaba Hassan & Arshid, Hirra, 2017. "Heat coupling of the pan-European vs. regional electrical grid with excess renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 363-377.
    6. Dujardin, Jérôme & Kahl, Annelen & Kruyt, Bert & Bartlett, Stuart & Lehning, Michael, 2017. "Interplay between photovoltaic, wind energy and storage hydropower in a fully renewable Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 513-525.
    7. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    8. Copp, David A. & Nguyen, Tu A. & Byrne, Raymond H. & Chalamala, Babu R., 2022. "Optimal sizing of distributed energy resources for planning 100% renewable electric power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    9. Mads Raunbak & Timo Zeyer & Kun Zhu & Martin Greiner, 2017. "Principal Mismatch Patterns Across a Simplified Highly Renewable European Electricity Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, November.
    10. Becker, Sarah & Frew, Bethany A. & Andresen, Gorm B. & Zeyer, Timo & Schramm, Stefan & Greiner, Martin & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2014. "Features of a fully renewable US electricity system: Optimized mixes of wind and solar PV and transmission grid extensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 443-458.
    11. François, B. & Zoccatelli, D. & Borga, M., 2017. "Assessing small hydro/solar power complementarity in ungauged mountainous areas: A crash test study for hydrological prediction methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 716-729.
    12. Gensler, André & Sick, Bernhard & Vogt, Stephan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty representations and metaverification of uncertainty assessment techniques for renewable energies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 352-379.
    13. Ashfaq, Asad & Ianakiev, Anton, 2018. "Features of fully integrated renewable energy atlas for Pakistan; wind, solar and cooling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 14-27.
    14. Weitemeyer, Stefan & Kleinhans, David & Vogt, Thomas & Agert, Carsten, 2015. "Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in future power systems: The role of storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-20.
    15. Johann Baumgartner & Katharina Gruber & Sofia G. Simoes & Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan & Johannes Schmidt, 2020. "Less Information, Similar Performance: Comparing Machine Learning-Based Time Series of Wind Power Generation to Renewables.ninja," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-23, May.
    16. Pleßmann, Guido & Blechinger, Philipp, 2017. "Outlook on South-East European power system until 2050: Least-cost decarbonization pathway meeting EU mitigation targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1041-1053.
    17. Bartlett, Stuart & Dujardin, Jérôme & Kahl, Annelen & Kruyt, Bert & Manso, Pedro & Lehning, Michael, 2018. "Charting the course: A possible route to a fully renewable Swiss power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 942-955.
    18. Philip Tafarte & Marcus Eichhorn & Daniela Thrän, 2019. "Capacity Expansion Pathways for a Wind and Solar Based Power Supply and the Impact of Advanced Technology—A Case Study for Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Johlas, Hannah & Witherby, Shelby & Doyle, James R., 2020. "Storage requirements for high grid penetration of wind and solar power for the MISO region of North America: A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1315-1324.
    20. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2016. "Using bias-corrected reanalysis to simulate current and future wind power output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1224-1239.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:10:p:800-:d:79808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.