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How Dependent Are European Power Systems and Economies on Natural Gas?—A Macroeconomic Optimization for Security of Electricity Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Christina Kockel

    (Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany)

  • Lars Nolting

    (Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany)

  • Kevin Pacco

    (Institute for High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics (IAEW), RWTH Aachen University, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Carlo Schmitt

    (Institute for High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics (IAEW), RWTH Aachen University, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Albert Moser

    (Institute for High Voltage Equipment and Grids, Digitalization and Energy Economics (IAEW), RWTH Aachen University, 52062 Aachen, Germany)

  • Aaron Praktiknjo

    (Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University, 52074 Aachen, Germany)

Abstract

How dependent are European power systems and economies on natural gas? To answer this pressing question, we coupled a simulation model for assessing security of electricity supply and an economic optimization model. With this, we were able to analyze different reduction scenarios of the amount of gas utilized in the power sector. Our results show that reducing the amount of natural gas in the European power sector by up to 30% has a relatively moderate impact on the security of electricity supply. Restrictions of 40% or more result in substantially higher reductions in electricity demand shortfall and are associated with economic costs of more than EUR 77 billion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a close coordination of gas distribution on a European level would be instrumental in mitigating negative economic consequences. Finally, it can be deduced that a coordinated delay of planned power plant shutdowns could effectively compensate for reduced gas volumes in the electricity sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Kockel & Lars Nolting & Kevin Pacco & Carlo Schmitt & Albert Moser & Aaron Praktiknjo, 2022. "How Dependent Are European Power Systems and Economies on Natural Gas?—A Macroeconomic Optimization for Security of Electricity Supply," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:23:p:8991-:d:986441
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aaron Praktiknjo, 2016. "The Value of Lost Load for Sectoral Load Shedding Measures: The German Case with 51 Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Praktiknjo, Aaron J., 2014. "Stated preferences based estimation of power interruption costs in private households: An example from Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 82-90.
    3. Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "Can we phase-out all of them? Probabilistic assessments of security of electricity supply for the German case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    4. Praktiknjo, Aaron J. & Hähnel, Alexander & Erdmann, Georg, 2011. "Assessing energy supply security: Outage costs in private households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7825-7833.
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