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The Costs of Power Interruptions in Germany - an Assessment in the Light of the Energiewende

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  • growitsch, christian

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Malischek, Raimund

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Nick, Sebastian

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Wetzel, Heike

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

The German Energiewende’s potential effects on the reliability of electricity supply as well as the corresponding economic consequences have recently entered both the political and scientific debate. However, empirical evidence of power outage costs in Germany is rather scarce. Following a macroeconomic approach, we analyse the economic costs imposed by potential power interruptions in Germany. Investigating a rich data set on industry and households we estimate both Values of Lost Load (VoLLs) and associated costs of power interruptions for different German regions and sectors and every hour of the year. This disaggregated approach allows for conclusions for optimal load shedding in case of technical necessity and the economic efficiency of measures to improve security of supply. We find that interruption costs vary significantly over time, between sectors and regions. Peaking on midday of a Monday in December at 750 Mioe per hour, the average of total national outage costs amount to approximately 430 Mioe per hour. Our results emphasize the prominent regional aspect of the German Energiewende as the regions with the highest estimated cost of interruptions in South and West Germany coincide with the areas which face nuclear power plant shut downs in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • growitsch, christian & Malischek, Raimund & Nick, Sebastian & Wetzel, Heike, 2013. "The Costs of Power Interruptions in Germany - an Assessment in the Light of the Energiewende," EWI Working Papers 2013-7, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2013_007
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertsch, Joachim & Brown, Tom & Hagspiel, Simeon & Just, Lisa, 2016. "The relevance of grid expansion under zonal markets," EWI Working Papers 2015-7, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Becker, Sophia & Schober, Dominik & Wassermann, Sandra, 2016. "How to approach consumers’ nonmonetary evaluation of electricity supply security? The case of Germany from a multidisciplinary perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 74-84.
    3. Guo, Dongmei & Li, Qin & Liu, Peng & Shi, Xunpeng & Yu, Jian, 2023. "Power shortage and firm performance: Evidence from a Chinese city power shortage index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Göke, Leonard & Kendziorski, Mario, 2022. "Adequacy of time-series reduction for renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    5. Gunduz, N & Kufeoglu, S. & Winzer, C. & Lehtonen, M., 2018. "Regional Differences in Economic Impacts of Power Outages in Finland," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1841, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Minnaar, U.J. & Visser, W. & Crafford, J., 2017. "An economic model for the cost of electricity service interruption in South Africa," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 41-50.
    7. Aaron Praktiknjo, 2016. "The Value of Lost Load for Sectoral Load Shedding Measures: The German Case with 51 Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, February.
    8. Hagspiel, Simeon, 2016. "Supply Chain Reliability and the Role of Individual Suppliers," EWI Working Papers 2016-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    9. Leonard Goke & Mario Kendziorski, 2021. "Adequacy of time-series reduction for renewable energy systems," Papers 2101.06221, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    10. Henning Thiesen & Clemens Jauch & Arne Gloe, 2016. "Design of a System Substituting Today’s Inherent Inertia in the European Continental Synchronous Area," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-12, July.
    11. Ovaere, Marten & Heylen, Evelyn & Proost, Stef & Deconinck, Geert & Van Hertem, Dirk, 2019. "How detailed value of lost load data impact power system reliability decisions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1064-1075.
    12. Frondel Manuel & Sommer Stephan, 2017. "Der Wert von Versorgungssicherheit mit Strom: Evidenz für deutsche Haushalte," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 66(3), pages 294-317, December.
    13. Többen, Johannes & Schröder, Thomas, 2018. "A maximum entropy approach to the estimation of spatially and sectorally disaggregated electricity load curves," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 797-813.
    14. Hagspiel, Simeon, 2018. "Reliability with interdependent suppliers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 161-173.
    15. Sinan Küfeoğlu & Niyazi Gündüz & Hao Chen & Matti Lehtonen, 2018. "Shadow Pricing of Electric Power Interruptions for Distribution System Operators in Finland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-14, July.
    16. Abuzayed, Anas & Hartmann, Niklas, 2022. "MyPyPSA-Ger: Introducing CO2 taxes on a multi-regional myopic roadmap of the German electricity system towards achieving the 1.5 °C target by 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    17. Castro, Rui & Faias, Sérgio & Esteves, Jorge, 2016. "The cost of electricity interruptions in Portugal: Valuing lost load by applying the production-function approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 48-57.
    18. Wolf, André & Wenzel, Lars, 2015. "Welfare implications of power rationing: An application to Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-62.
    19. Joachim Bertsch, & Tom Brown & Simeon Hagspiel & Lisa Just, 2017. "The relevance of grid expansion under zonal markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    20. Göke, Leonard & Madlener, Reinhard, 2017. "High Taxes on Cloudy Days: Dynamic State-Induced Price Components in Power Markets," FCN Working Papers 18/2017, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised 01 May 2020.
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    23. Landegren, Finn & Johansson, Jonas & Samuelsson, Olof, 2019. "Quality of supply regulations versus societal priorities regarding electricity outage consequences: Case study in a Swedish context," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Security of Supply; Value of Lost Load (VoLL); German Energiewende; Electricity outage costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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