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Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience

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Listed:
  • Osmel Manzano

    (Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC 20577, USA)

  • Jose Luis Saboin

    (Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC 20577, USA
    Department of Economics, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA)

Abstract

This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the resources received from the oil sector. We explored the interaction of oil policy and fiscal policy using such intergenerational accounting model. We argue that the way in which tax revenues (both, those coming from oil and those who do not) are used today can affect voters preferences on how they will be used tomorrow. These interactions could explain certain outcomes. In particular, the model could explain why the sector was open for investment in 1991 and then “re-nationalized” in 2001. Results suggest that when fiscal policy could leave an important burden to future generations, voters seem to favor a more tax-oriented oil policy, leaving the oil in the subsoil.

Suggested Citation

  • Osmel Manzano & Jose Luis Saboin, 2021. "Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-20, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:9:p:2574-:d:546980
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Theodosios Anastasios Perifanis, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Results of Diligent Resource Revenues Management: The Norwegian Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil policy; fiscal policy; intergenerational accounting; fiscal voracity; oil expropriation cycles; Venezuela;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • N56 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels

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