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Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090

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Author Info
Antoine Bommier
Ronald Lee
Timothy Miller
Stephane Zuber

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Abstract

Public transfer programs in industrial nations have massive long term fiscal imbalances, and apparently permit the elderly to benefit through pension and health care programs at the cost of the young and future generations. However, the intergenerational picture is turned upside down when public education is included in generational accounts along with pensions and health care. We calculate the net present value (NPV) of benefits received minus taxes paid for US generations born 1850 to 2090, and find that all generations born from 1950 to 2050 are net gainers, while many of today's old people are net losers. Windfall gains for early generations when Social Security and Medicare started up partially offset windfall losses when public education was started, roughtly consistent with the Becker-Murphy theory.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10969.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10969

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H0 - Public Economics - - General

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  1. Antonio Rangel, 2000. "Forward and Backward Intergenerational Goods: A Theory of Intergenerational Exchange," NBER Working Papers 7518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Fiscal and generational imbalances: new budget measures for new budget priorities," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec. [Downloadable!]
  3. David M. Cutler & Louise Sheiner, 2000. "Generational aspects of Medicare," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "The Family and the State," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-18, April.
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