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It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Author

Listed:
  • Sven Teske

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia)

  • Thomas Pregger

    (Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Sonja Simon

    (Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Tobias Naegler

    (Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Johannes Pagenkopf

    (Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Özcan Deniz

    (Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Bent van den Adel

    (Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38–40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Kate Dooley

    (Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia)

  • Malte Meinshausen

    (Australian–German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia)

Abstract

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO 2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO 2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Teske & Thomas Pregger & Sonja Simon & Tobias Naegler & Johannes Pagenkopf & Özcan Deniz & Bent van den Adel & Kate Dooley & Malte Meinshausen, 2021. "It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2103-:d:533320
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    4. Antweiler, Werner & Muesgens, Felix, 2024. "The new merit order: The viability of energy-only electricity markets with only intermittent renewable energy sources and grid-scale storage," Ruhr Economic Papers 1064, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Ram, Manish & Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Job creation during a climate compliant global energy transition across the power, heat, transport, and desalination sectors by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    6. Keiner, Dominik & Thoma, Christian & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Seasonal hydrogen storage for residential on- and off-grid solar photovoltaics prosumer applications: Revolutionary solution or niche market for the energy transition until 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    7. Peter Mako & Andrej Dávid & Patrik Böhm & Sorin Savu, 2021. "Sustainable Transport in the Danube Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    8. Osorio-Aravena, Juan Carlos & Aghahosseini, Arman & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Caldera, Upeksha & Ghorbani, Narges & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Haas, Jannik & Muñoz-Cerón, Emilio & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Synergies of electrical and sectoral integration: Analysing geographical multi-node scenarios with sector coupling variations for a transition towards a fully renewables-based energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    9. Dolf Gielen, 2022. "Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-6, April.
    10. Kamani, D. & Ardehali, M.M., 2023. "Long-term forecast of electrical energy consumption with considerations for solar and wind energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    11. Anna Garcia-Teruel & Yvonne Scholz & Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle & Sigrid Prehofer & Karl-Kiên Cao & Frieder Borggrefe, 2022. "Teaching Power-Sector Models Social and Political Awareness," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-24, April.
    12. Lopez, Gabriel & Aghahosseini, Arman & Child, Michael & Khalili, Siavash & Fasihi, Mahdi & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2022. "Impacts of model structure, framework, and flexibility on perspectives of 100% renewable energy transition decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    13. Farajiamiri, Mina & Meyer, Jörn-Christian & Walther, Grit, 2023. "Multi-objective optimization of renewable fuel supply chains regarding cost, land use, and water use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).

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