IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i2p295-d306139.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Spada

    (Laboratory for Energy System Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland)

  • Peter Burgherr

    (Laboratory for Energy System Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland)

Abstract

The accident risk of severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents in fossil energy chains (Coal, Oil and Natural Gas) is analyzed. The full chain risk is assessed for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 28 Member States of the European Union (EU28) and non-OECD countries. Furthermore, for Coal, Chinese data are analysed separately for three different periods, i.e., 1994–1999, 2000–2008 and 2009–2016, due to different data sources, and highly incomplete data prior to 1994. A Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied to investigate the risk and associated uncertainties of a comprehensive accident data set from the Paul Scherrer Institute’s ENergy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD). By means of BMA, frequency and severity distributions were established, and a final posterior distribution including model uncertainty is constructed by a weighted combination of the different models. The proposed approach, by dealing with lack of data and lack of knowledge, allows for a general reduction of the uncertainty in the calculated risk indicators, which is beneficial for informed decision-making strategies under uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Spada & Peter Burgherr, 2020. "Comparative Risk Assessment for Fossil Energy Chains Using Bayesian Model Averaging," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:2:p:295-:d:306139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/2/295/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/2/295/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiago M. Fragoso & Wesley Bertoli & Francisco Louzada, 2018. "Bayesian Model Averaging: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Classification," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 86(1), pages 1-28, April.
    2. Burgherr, Peter & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2014. "Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 45-56.
    3. A. John Bailer & Robert B. Noble & Matthew W. Wheeler, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Risk Estimation for Experimental Studies of Quantal Responses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(2), pages 291-299, April.
    4. Peter Burgherr & Stefan Hirschberg & Matteo Spada, 2013. "Comparative Assessment of Accident Risks in the Energy Sector," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Raimund M. Kovacevic & Georg Ch. Pflug & Maria Teresa Vespucci (ed.), Handbook of Risk Management in Energy Production and Trading, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 475-501, Springer.
    5. Burgherr, Peter & Eckle, Petrissa & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2012. "Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 97-103.
    6. Volkart, Kathrin & Weidmann, Nicolas & Bauer, Christian & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2017. "Multi-criteria decision analysis of energy system transformation pathways: A case study for Switzerland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 155-168.
    7. Petrissa Eckle & Peter Burgherr, 2013. "Bayesian Data Analysis of Severe Fatal Accident Risk in the Oil Chain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 146-160, January.
    8. Spada, Matteo & Paraschiv, Florentina & Burgherr, Peter, 2018. "A comparison of risk measures for accidents in the energy sector and their implications on decision-making strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 277-288.
    9. Marco Cinelli & Matteo Spada & Miłosz Kadziński & Grzegorz Miebs & Peter Burgherr, 2019. "Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Terje Aven, 2013. "On Funtowicz and Ravetz's “Decision Stake—System Uncertainties” Structure and Recently Developed Risk Perspectives," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 270-280, February.
    11. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    12. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, 2012. "Confronting Deep Uncertainties in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1607-1629, October.
    13. Louis Anthony Cox, 2009. "Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-89014-2, September.
    14. Riddel, Mary, 2011. "Uncertainty and measurement error in welfare models for risk changes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 341-354, May.
    15. Thelwall, Mike, 2016. "The precision of the arithmetic mean, geometric mean and percentiles for citation data: An experimental simulation modelling approach," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 110-123.
    16. David Novelo-Casanova & Gerardo Suárez, 2015. "Estimation of the Risk Management Index (RMI) using statistical analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(3), pages 1501-1514, July.
    17. Aven, Terje, 2012. "The risk concept—historical and recent development trends," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 33-44.
    18. Vicki M. Bier & Shi‐Woei Lin, 2013. "On the Treatment of Uncertainty and Variability in Making Decisions About Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1899-1907, October.
    19. Derica Lambrechts & Lars B. Blomquist, 2017. "Political–security risk in the oil and gas industry: the impact of terrorism on risk management and mitigation," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1320-1337, October.
    20. Raimund M. Kovacevic & Georg Ch. Pflug & Maria Teresa Vespucci (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Risk Management in Energy Production and Trading," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-9035-7, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hirschberg, Stefan & Bauer, Christian & Burgherr, Peter & Cazzoli, Eric & Heck, Thomas & Spada, Matteo & Treyer, Karin, 2016. "Health effects of technologies for power generation: Contributions from normal operation, severe accidents and terrorist threat," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 373-387.
    2. Spada, Matteo & Paraschiv, Florentina & Burgherr, Peter, 2018. "A comparison of risk measures for accidents in the energy sector and their implications on decision-making strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 277-288.
    3. Marco Cinelli & Matteo Spada & Miłosz Kadziński & Grzegorz Miebs & Peter Burgherr, 2019. "Advancing Hazard Assessment of Energy Accidents in the Natural Gas Sector with Rough Set Theory and Decision Rules," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Florentina Paraschiv & Dima Mohamad, 2020. "The Nuclear Power Dilemma—Between Perception and Reality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Kryman, Matthew & Laine, Emily, 2015. "Profiling technological failure and disaster in the energy sector: A comparative analysis of historical energy accidents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 2016-2027.
    6. Moahamed Younes El Bouti & Mohamed Allouch, 2018. "Analysis of 801 Work-Related Incidents in the Oil and Gas Industry That Occurred Between 2014 and 2016 in 6 Regions," Energy and Environment Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, June.
    7. Shiyu Chen & Wei Wang & Enrico Zio, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Framework for the Production Planning in Energy Supply Chains," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-27, May.
    8. Michael Krisper, 2021. "Problems with Risk Matrices Using Ordinal Scales," Papers 2103.05440, arXiv.org.
    9. Muath Bani Salim & Dervis Emre Demirocak & Nael Barakat, 2018. "A Fuzzy Based Model for Standardized Sustainability Assessment of Photovoltaic Cells," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Gunnar Luderer & Michaja Pehl & Anders Arvesen & Thomas Gibon & Benjamin L Bodirsky & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Oliver Fricko & Mohamad Hejazi & Florian Humpenöder & Gokul Iyer & Silvana Mima & Ioanna Mo, 2019. "Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies," Post-Print hal-02380468, HAL.
    11. Juan Durango-Cordero & Mehdi Saqalli & Christophe Laplanche & Marine Locquet & Arnaud Elger, 2018. "Spatial Analysis of Accidental Oil Spills Using Heterogeneous Data: A Case Study from the North-Eastern Ecuadorian Amazon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Shi, Wenming, 2019. "A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 203-227.
    13. Peng Hou & Xiaojian Yi & Haiping Dong, 2020. "A Spatial Statistic Based Risk Assessment Approach to Prioritize the Pipeline Inspection of the Pipeline Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, February.
    14. Hughes, Larry & de Jong, Moniek & Wang, Xiao Qin, 2016. "A generic method for analyzing the risks to energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 895-908.
    15. Anna Kalinina & Matteo Spada & Peter Burgherr, 2020. "Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1723-1743, September.
    16. Christoph Scheingraber & Martin A. Käser, 2019. "The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 695-712, March.
    17. Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Thai, Vinh V., 2021. "An Operational Risk Analysis Model for Container Shipping Systems considering Uncertainty Quantification," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    18. Vaezi, Ali & Verma, Manish, 2018. "Railroad transportation of crude oil in Canada: Developing long-term forecasts, and evaluating the impact of proposed pipeline projects," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 98-111.
    19. Antonín Korauš & Miroslav Gombár & Pavel Kelemen & Jozef Polák, 2019. "Analysis of respondents' opinions and attitudes toward the security of payment systems," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(4), pages 1987-2002, June.
    20. Roland Brown & Yingling Fan & Kirti Das & Julian Wolfson, 2021. "Iterated multisource exchangeability models for individualized inference with an application to mobile sensor data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 401-412, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:2:p:295-:d:306139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.