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The Value of PV Power Forecast and the Paradox of the “Single Pricing” Scheme: The Italian Case Study

Author

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  • Marco Pierro

    (Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy
    EURAC Research, Institute for Renewable Energy, Viale Druso, 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy)

  • David Moser

    (EURAC Research, Institute for Renewable Energy, Viale Druso, 1, 39100 Bolzano, Italy)

  • Richard Perez

    (Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12203, USA)

  • Cristina Cornaro

    (Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy
    CHOSE, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy)

Abstract

One of the major problem of photovoltaic grid integration is limiting the solar-induced imbalances since these can undermine the security and stability of the electrical system. Improving the forecast accuracy of photovoltaic generation is becoming essential to allow a massive solar penetration. In particular, improving the forecast accuracy of large solar farms’ generation is important both for the producers/traders to minimize the imbalance costs and for the transmission system operators to ensure stability. In this article, we provide a benchmark for the day-ahead forecast accuracy of utility scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in 1325 locations spanning the country of Italy. We then use these benchmarked forecasts and real energy prices to compute the economic value of the forecast accuracy and accuracy improvement in the context of the Italian energy market’s regulatory framework. Through this study, we further point out several important criticisms of the Italian “single pricing” system that brings paradoxical and counterproductive effects regarding the need to reduce the imbalance volumes. Finally, we propose a new market-pricing rule and innovative actions to overcome the undesired effects of the current dispatching regulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Pierro & David Moser & Richard Perez & Cristina Cornaro, 2020. "The Value of PV Power Forecast and the Paradox of the “Single Pricing” Scheme: The Italian Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-27, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:15:p:3945-:d:393223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierro, Marco & De Felice, Matteo & Maggioni, Enrico & Moser, David & Perotto, Alessandro & Spada, Francesco & Cornaro, Cristina, 2020. "Residual load probabilistic forecast for reserve assessment: A real case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 508-522.
    2. Kaur, Amanpreet & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Benefits of solar forecasting for energy imbalance markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 819-830.
    3. Wu, Jing & Botterud, Audun & Mills, Andrew & Zhou, Zhi & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Heaney, Mike, 2015. "Integrating solar PV (photovoltaics) in utility system operations: Analytical framework and Arizona case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Clò, Stefano & Fumagalli, Elena, 2019. "The effect of price regulation on energy imbalances: A Difference in Differences design," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 754-764.
    5. Pierro, Marco & Perez, Richard & Perez, Marc & Moser, David & Cornaro, Cristina, 2020. "Italian protocol for massive solar integration: Imbalance mitigation strategies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 725-739.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ángel A. Bayod-Rújula & Juan A. Tejero-Gómez, 2022. "Analysis of the Hybridization of PV Plants with a BESS for Annual Constant Power Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Miguel López Santos & Xela García-Santiago & Fernando Echevarría Camarero & Gonzalo Blázquez Gil & Pablo Carrasco Ortega, 2022. "Application of Temporal Fusion Transformer for Day-Ahead PV Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-22, July.
    3. Pierro, Marco & Perez, Richard & Perez, Marc & Moser, David & Cornaro, Cristina, 2021. "Imbalance mitigation strategy via flexible PV ancillary services: The Italian case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1694-1705.
    4. Hassan Elahi & Khushboo Munir & Marco Eugeni & Sofiane Atek & Paolo Gaudenzi, 2020. "Energy Harvesting towards Self-Powered IoT Devices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-31, October.
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    7. Avesani, Diego & Zanfei, Ariele & Di Marco, Nicola & Galletti, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Righetti, Maurizio & Majone, Bruno, 2022. "Short-term hydropower optimization driven by innovative time-adapting econometric model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    8. Marco Pierro & Fabio Romano Liolli & Damiano Gentili & Marcello Petitta & Richard Perez & David Moser & Cristina Cornaro, 2022. "Impact of PV/Wind Forecast Accuracy and National Transmission Grid Reinforcement on the Italian Electric System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-28, November.
    9. Mayer, Martin János, 2022. "Impact of the tilt angle, inverter sizing factor and row spacing on the photovoltaic power forecast accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).

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