IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i13p3383-d379151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Renewable Energy Auction Prices: Near Subsidy-Free?

Author

Listed:
  • Helena Martín

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Escola d′Enginyeria de Barcelona Est, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, 08930 Sant Adrià de Besòs, Barcelona, Spain)

  • Sergio Coronas

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Escola d′Enginyeria de Barcelona Est, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, 08930 Sant Adrià de Besòs, Barcelona, Spain)

  • Àlex Alonso

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Escola d′Enginyeria de Barcelona Est, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, 08930 Sant Adrià de Besòs, Barcelona, Spain)

  • Jordi de la Hoz

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Escola d′Enginyeria de Barcelona Est, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, 08930 Sant Adrià de Besòs, Barcelona, Spain)

  • José Matas

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Escola d′Enginyeria de Barcelona Est, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, 08930 Sant Adrià de Besòs, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

The latest trend of low record bid prices in renewable energy auctions has raised concerns on the effective deployment of the winning projects. A survey of recent auction data from several countries, technologies and remuneration designs is analysed and compared with the corresponding levelised costs of energy (LCOEs) to draw first insights on their viability. A critical assessment of the ability of the LCOE for determining the adequate bid level is then performed and the preliminary unviable results of selected mature technologies are further investigated using improved profitability metrics as the project and equity net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). As representative examples, the analysed Danish 2019 onshore wind and photovoltaics (PV) auctions require very specific scenarios to become viable, which cast doubts on their effective implementation. Under the assumptions of a realistic base case, the sensitivity analysis revealed that either 59% of decrease in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), or 37% of discount on the investment cost or a 3.6% annual increment in the mean market price is needed for achieving the NPV break-even in the onshore wind case. Likewise, the PV case is unprofitable whatever the WACC may be, and either a 60% discount on the investment cost or a 6.8% annual increment in the mean market price is needed for the NPV to break-even. Although some projects could be relying on indirect revenues or additional sources of incomes beyond the auction support, it remains to see if they are finally materialised.

Suggested Citation

  • Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Àlex Alonso & Jordi de la Hoz & José Matas, 2020. "Renewable Energy Auction Prices: Near Subsidy-Free?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:13:p:3383-:d:379151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/13/3383/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/13/3383/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tao, Jacqueline Yujia & Finenko, Anton, 2016. "Moving beyond LCOE: impact of various financing methods on PV profitability for SIDS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 749-758.
    2. Lundberg, Liv, 2019. "Auctions for all? Reviewing the German wind power auctions in 2017," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 449-458.
    3. Romeiro, Diogo Lisbona & Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de & Losekann, Luciano, 2020. "Systemic value of electricity sources – What we can learn from the Brazilian experience?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Dobrotkova, Zuzana & Surana, Kavita & Audinet, Pierre, 2018. "The price of solar energy: Comparing competitive auctions for utility-scale solar PV in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 133-148.
    5. Ondraczek, Janosch & Komendantova, Nadejda & Patt, Anthony, 2015. "WACC the dog: The effect of financing costs on the levelized cost of solar PV power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 888-898.
    6. John Foster & Liam Wagner & Alexandra Bratanova, 2014. "LCOE models: A comparison of the theoretical frameworks and key assumptions," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 4-2014, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    7. Simpson, Juliet & Loth, Eric & Dykes, Katherine, 2020. "Cost of Valued Energy for design of renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 290-300.
    8. Bazilian, Morgan & Onyeji, Ijeoma & Liebreich, Michael & MacGill, Ian & Chase, Jennifer & Shah, Jigar & Gielen, Dolf & Arent, Doug & Landfear, Doug & Zhengrong, Shi, 2013. "Re-considering the economics of photovoltaic power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 329-338.
    9. Kruger, Wikus & Stritzke, Susann & Trotter, Philipp A., 2019. "De-risking solar auctions in sub-Saharan Africa – A comparison of site selection strategies in South Africa and Zambia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 429-438.
    10. Bose, A.S. & Sarkar, S., 2019. "India's e-reverse auctions (2017–2018) for allocating renewable energy capacity: An evaluation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 762-774.
    11. Welisch, Marijke, 2019. "Multi-unit renewables auctions for small markets - Designing the Danish multi-technology auction scheme," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 372-380.
    12. Welisch, Marijke & Poudineh, Rahmatallah, 2020. "Auctions for allocation of offshore wind contracts for difference in the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 1266-1274.
    13. Cassetta, Ernesto & Monarca, Umberto & Nava, Consuelo Rubina & Meleo, Linda, 2017. "Is the answer blowin' in the wind (auctions)? An assessment of the Italian support scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 662-674.
    14. Botta, Enrico, 2019. "An experimental approach to climate finance: the impact of auction design and policy uncertainty on renewable energy equity costs in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Marijke Welisch, 2018. "The Importance of Penalties and Pre-qualifications: A Model-based Assessment of the UK Renewables Auction Scheme," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    16. Grashof, Katherina & Berkhout, Volker & Cernusko, Robert & Pfennig, Maximilian, 2020. "Long on promises, short on delivery? Insights from the first two years of onshore wind auctions in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Washburn, C. & Pablo-Romero, M., 2019. "Measures to promote renewable energies for electricity generation in Latin American countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 212-222.
    18. Shahriyar Nasirov & Eugenio Cruz & Claudio A. Agostini & Carlos Silva, 2019. "Policy Makers’ Perspectives on the Expansion of Renewable Energy Sources in Chile’s Electricity Auctions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-17, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Izabela Godyń & Anna Dubel, 2021. "Evolution of Hydropower Support Schemes in Poland and Their Assessment Using the LCOE Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Chun-Nan Chen & Chun-Ting Yang, 2021. "The Investability of PV Systems under Descending Feed-In Tariffs: Taiwan Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-13, May.
    3. del Río, Pablo & Kiefer, Christoph P., 2023. "Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Vassilis Stavrakas & Nikos Kleanthis & Alexandros Flamos, 2020. "An Ex-Post Assessment of RES-E Support in Greece by Investigating the Monetary Flows and the Causal Relationships in the Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-29, September.
    5. Ludwik Wicki & Robert Pietrzykowski & Dariusz Kusz, 2022. "Factors Determining the Development of Prosumer Photovoltaic Installations in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Kandpal, Divik & Dhingra, Tarun, 2021. "Migrating to reverse Auction mechanisms in wind energy sector: Status and challenges," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales & Reinaldo Castro Souza & Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva & Natalí Carbo-Bustinza & Germán Ibacache-Pulgar & Rodrigo Flora Calili, 2020. "Simulation of the Energy Efficiency Auction Prices via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. del Río, Pablo & Kiefer, Christoph P., 2023. "Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Anatolitis, Vasilios & Azanbayev, Alina & Fleck, Ann-Katrin, 2022. "How to design efficient renewable energy auctions? Empirical insights from Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Kruger, Wikus & Nygaard, Ivan & Kitzing, Lena, 2021. "Counteracting market concentration in renewable energy auctions: Lessons learned from South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    4. Álvarez, Francisco & del Río, Pablo, 2022. "Is small always beautiful? Analyzing the efficiency effects of size heterogeneity in renewable electricity auctions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Melliger, Marc, 2023. "Quantifying technology skewness in European multi-technology auctions and the effect of design elements and other driving factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. La Monaca, Sarah & Ryan, Lisa, 2017. "Solar PV where the sun doesn’t shine: Estimating the economic impacts of support schemes for residential PV with detailed net demand profiling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 731-741.
    7. Batz Liñeiro, Taimyra & Müsgens, Felix, 2023. "Evaluating the German onshore wind auction programme: An analysis based on individual bids," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    8. Alexandra G. Papadopoulou & George Vasileiou & Alexandros Flamos, 2020. "A Comparison of Dispatchable RES Technoeconomics: Is There a Niche for Concentrated Solar Power?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Đukan, Mak & Kitzing, Lena, 2023. "A bigger bang for the buck: The impact of risk reduction on renewable energy support payments in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Sheykhha, Siamak & Borggrefe, Frieder & Madlener, Reinhard, 2022. "Policy implications of spatially differentiated renewable energy promotion: A multi-level scenario analysis of onshore wind auctioning in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    11. Geßner, Daniel, 2023. "Performance of Renewable Energy Policies - Evidence from Germany's Transition to Auctions," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 105, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    12. Đukan, Mak & Kitzing, Lena, 2021. "The impact of auctions on financing conditions and cost of capital for wind energy projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Kitzing, Lena & Siddique, Muhammad Bilal & Nygaard, Ivan & Kruger, Wikus, 2022. "Worth the wait: How South Africa's renewable energy auctions perform compared to Europe's leading countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    14. Boute, Anatole, 2020. "Regulatory stability and renewable energy investment: The case of Kazakhstan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Moon, Yongma & Baran, Mesut, 2018. "Economic analysis of a residential PV system from the timing perspective: A real option model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 783-795.
    16. Zhao, Zhen-Yu & Chen, Yu-Long & Thomson, John Douglas, 2017. "Levelized cost of energy modeling for concentrated solar power projects: A China study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 117-127.
    17. Espinoza, R. & Muñoz-Cerón, E. & Aguilera, J. & de la Casa, J., 2019. "Feasibility evaluation of residential photovoltaic self-consumption projects in Peru," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 414-427.
    18. Dobrotkova, Zuzana & Surana, Kavita & Audinet, Pierre, 2018. "The price of solar energy: Comparing competitive auctions for utility-scale solar PV in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 133-148.
    19. Côté, Elizabeth & Đukan, Mak & Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Cristian & Wüstenhagen, Rolf, 2022. "The price of actor diversity: Measuring project developers’ willingness to accept risks in renewable energy auctions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    20. Bose, A.S. & Sarkar, S., 2019. "India's e-reverse auctions (2017–2018) for allocating renewable energy capacity: An evaluation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 762-774.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:13:p:3383-:d:379151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.