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Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case

Author

Listed:
  • Qian Zhang

    (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Xunmin Ou

    (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Xiaoyu Yan

    (Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK)

  • Xiliang Zhang

    (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV) in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China), analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO 2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO 2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives.

Suggested Citation

  • Qian Zhang & Xunmin Ou & Xiaoyu Yan & Xiliang Zhang, 2017. "Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:228-:d:90396
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    References listed on IDEAS

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