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Macroeconomic news and real interest rates

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Author Info

  • Kevin L. Kliesen
  • Frank A. Schmid

Abstract

Economic news affects the perceptions of investors, forecasters, and policymakers about the strength or weakness of the economy. These expectations are updated on the basis of regularly occurring surprises in macroeconomic announcement data. The response of asset prices to positive or negative announcement surprises has been a regular feature of the literature for more than 20 years. In this vein, the authors evaluate the responses of the yield of 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed securities to nearly three dozen macroeconomic announcements. They find that the real long-term rate of interest responds positively to surprises in a handful of key macroeconomic indicators, including labor productivity growth. Also, the authors find no support for the proposition that the Federal Reserve has information about its actions or the state of the real economy that is not in the pubic domain and, hence, not already priced in the real long-term interest rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
Pages: 133-144

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:mar:p:133-144:n:v.88no.2

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Related research

Keywords: Interest rates;

References

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  1. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  2. Janet L. Yellen, 2005. "Views on the economy and implications for monetary policy," Speech 10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Janet L. Yellen, 2005. "Views on the economy and implications for monetary policy," Speech 11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  6. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
  7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2002. "Market-based measures of monetary policy expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94.
  9. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2003. "The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates: evidence and implications for macroeconomic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
  11. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  12. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1977. "A note on a heteroscedastic model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 365-370, November.
  14. Laurence Weiss, 2006. "Inflation indexed bonds and monetary theory," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 271-275, 01.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2007. "How well does employment predict output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 433-446.
  2. Brevik, Frode & d'Addona, Stefano, 2013. "Is Ignorance Bliss? The Cost Of Business-Cycle Uncertainty," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 728-746, June.
  3. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Bond Yields: (In)Stabilities over Time and Relative Importance," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.

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