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Conducting monetary policy with inflation targets

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Author Info

  • George A. Kahn
  • Klara Parrish

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, a number of central banks have adopted numerical inflation targets as a guide for monetary policy. The targets are intended to help central banks achieve and maintain price stability by specifying an explicit goal for monetary policy based on a given time path for a particular measure of inflation. In some cases the targets are expressed as a range for inflation over time, while in other cases they are expressed as a path for the inflation rate itself. The measure of inflation that is targeted varies but is typically a broad measure of prices, such as a consumer or retail price index.> At a conceptual level, adopting inflation targets may necessitate fundamental changes in the way monetary policy responds to economic conditions. For example, inflation targeting requires a highly forward-looking monetary policy. Given lags in the effects of monetary policy on inflation, central banks seeking to achieve a target for inflation need to forecast inflation and adjust policy in response to projected deviations of inflation from target. But central banks without an explicit inflation target may also be forward looking and equally focused on a long-run goal of price stability. Thus, at a practical level, adopting inflation targets may only formalize a strategy for policy that was already more or less in place. If so, targets might improve the transparency, accountability, and credibility of monetary policy but have little or no impact on the way policy instruments are adjusted to incoming information about the economy. Kahn and Parrish examine how central banks have changed their policy procedures after adopting explicit inflation targets. They conclude that, while inflation targets have perhaps improved the transparency, accountability, and credibility of monetary policy, it is difficult to discern any significant and systematic changes in the way policymakers adjust policy instruments to incoming information after adopting inflation targets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Q III ()
Pages: 5-32

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:1998:i:qiii:p:5-32:n:v.83no.3

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance);

References

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  1. Gordon H. Sellon, Jr. & Stuart E. Weiner, 1996. "Monetary policy without reserve requirements: analytical issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-24.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Andrew Haldane, 1997. "Some Issues in Inflation Targeting," Bank of England working papers 74, Bank of England.
  5. Pierre Duguay & Stephen Poloz, 1994. "The Role of Economic Projections in Canadian Monetary Policy Formulation," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 20(2), pages 189-199, June.
  6. George A. Kahn & Robert Hampton, Jr., 1990. "Possible monetary policy responses to the Iraqi oil shock," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Nov, pages 19-32.
  7. Andreas Fischer, 1993. "Inflation Targeting: The New Zealand and Canadian Cases," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, Spring/Su.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern Europe," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-341, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  2. Kursat Kunter & Norbert Janssen, 2002. "Credibility Of Monetary Regimes : Is Inflation Targeting Different?," Discussion Papers 0201, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  3. M. Frömmel & G. Garabedian & F. Schobert, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Matter?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/611, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  4. Valdivia, Daney & Loayza, Lilian, 2010. "Adopción de metas de inflación y su impacto en las expectativas de inflación y volatilidad del crecimiento económico: evidencia empírica para Bolivia
    [Inflation targeting and its impact on the
    ," MPRA Paper 37328, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2011.
  5. Neumann, Manfred J. M. & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2002. "Does inflation targeting matter?," ZEI Working Papers B 01-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  6. Francisco Dakila, Jr., 2001. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 1-36, December.
  7. Thorarinn G. Petursson, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and its Effects on Macroeconomic Performance," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2005/5 edited by Morten Balling.
  8. Bugarin, Mauricio & Carvalho. Fabia A., 2006. "Heterogeneity of Central Bankers and Inflationary Pressure," Insper Working Papers wpe_68, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  9. Luis A. Rivas, 2002. "Core Inflation and Inflation Targeting in a Developing Economy," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0207, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2003.
  10. C. Andrade, Eduardo, 2003. "Quotas in Brazilian Public Universities: Good or Bad Idea?," Insper Working Papers wpe_37, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

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