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An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001

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  • Spencer Krane

Abstract

During the second half of the 1990s, forecasters made large and persistent underpredictions of GDP growth; subsequently, they missed the drop off into the recession of 2001. Forecasters do not appear to have behaved unusually during this period: Their out-period forecasts were not far from their perceptions of longer-run trends. This suggests that the forecast errors in 1996-2001 likely reflected some unusual behavior in the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q I ()
Pages: 2-21

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2003:i:qi:p:2-21:n:v.27no.1

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Keywords: Gross domestic product;

References

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Berger, Allen N & Krane, Spencer D, 1985. "The Information Efficiency of Econometric Model Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 128-34, February.
  3. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
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Cited by:
  1. Spencer D. Krane, 2011. "Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 184-211, January.
  2. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
  3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2006: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, 01.

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