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Stochastic and deterministic trends in Finnish macroeconomic time series

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  • Mikael Linden

    (University of Helsinki)

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    Abstract

    The appropriateness of the Dickey-Fuller unit root test is studied using two alternative unit root test models. The segmented trend model is strongly supported and the second-order trend model is favoured for some series. The sample set consists of observations of nine basic macroeconomic time series describing the fundamentals of the Finnish economy between 1860 and 1989. The results clearly show that care is required in interpreting unit-root tests since failure to reject does not entail that the null is true. Structural breaks in the data generating process, in this case wars starting in 1917 and 1939, support models of the deterministic trends class. However, it is argued that the univariate testing procedures laid down in the unit root literature do not provide information to macroeconomic controversies.

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    File URL: http://taloustieteellinenyhdistys.fi/images/stories/fep/f1992_2d.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Finnish Economic Association in its journal Finnish Economic Papers.

    Volume (Year): 5 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Autumn)
    Pages: 110-116

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    Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:5:y:1992:i:2:p:110-116

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    1. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
    4. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "The Durbin-Watson Ratio Under Infinite Variance Errors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 898R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
    6. Phillips, P.C.B., 1990. "Time Series Regression With a Unit Root and Infinite-Variance Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 44-62, March.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Asmaa Ahmed, 2005. "Random Walks in the Economic Dynamic Series," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 78-100.
    2. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2002. "Random Walks and Non-Linear Paths in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications," Working Papers geewp22, Vienna University of Economics Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.

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