Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Single European Treasury Bill Market
AbstractThis paper investigates the validity of the expectations hypothesis (EH) with time-varying, albeit stationary, term premia in the Ecu Treasury bill market. The analysis utilises the term premium factor representation proposed by Tzavalis and Wickens (1997) and the modified VAR approach by Cuthbertson et al. (1997). The findings indicate that once time-varying term premia are accounted for, estimated models cannot reject the predictions of the EH. However, these term premia do not exhibit strong persistence. The rejection of the spread restriction for (n,m)=(26-week,13-week) may be due to a small I(1) term premium and/or a slight misalignment of investment horizons.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by European Research Studies Journal in its journal European Research Studies Journal.
Volume (Year): IX (2006)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
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Web page: http://www.ersj.eu/
Expectations hypothesis; Risk Premia; Perfect foresight regressions; VAR;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
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