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Thirlwall´s law with an emphasis on the ratio of export/import income elasticities in Latin American economies during the Twentieth Century

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Carlos Guerrero de Lizardi (Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México)

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Abstract

Using stochastic specifications that emphasize the role of the ratio of export/import income elasticities, this paper applies the balance-of-payments constraint model to nineteen Latin American countries from 1900 to 2000. The paper begins with a brief presentation of Thirlwall's well-known model. Immediately following this, we verify the existence of a long run relationship between developing economies on one hand, and the US economy on the other. To explore the short term evolution of the quantitative link between economies, a time varying model is estimated by means of an algorithm known as a Kalman filter. Mainly, the results show a diminishing the ratio of export/import income elasticities over the years, which represents an unexpected and serious feature of the new economic strategy that has already been implanted in the region.

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File URL: http://revistas.colmex.mx/revistas/12/art_12_1124_8533.pdf
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Article provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its journal Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 23-44
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Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:21:y:2006:i:1:p:23-44

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  1. Eduardo Lora, 2001. "Structural reforms in Latin America: What has been reformed and how to measure it?," RES Working Papers 4287, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bairam, Erkin I, 1993. "Income Elasticities of Exports and Imports: A Re-examination of the Empirical Evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-74, January.
  3. Kelejian, Harry H., 1982. "An extension of a standard test for heteroskedasticity to a systems framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 325-333, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Perron, Pierre & Ng, Serena, 1996. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(3), pages 435-63, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," RES Working Papers 4301, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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