IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ejw/journl/v10y2013i1p108-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Paul Krugman Denies Having Concurred With an Administration Forecast: A Note

Author

Listed:
  • David O. Cushman

Abstract

In a previous article for Econ Journal Watch, I attributed to Paul Krugman a concurrence with the optimistic economic forecast put forward in early 2009 by the incoming Administration. Krugman reacted by denying that he had concurred with that forecast, pointing to a blog entry of his from January 2009. But Krugman apparently did not read my paper. It concerned not a blog entry from January 2009 but rather one from March 2009. In this note, I take greater pains to show how Krugman’s March entry, made in support of Brad DeLong’s criticism of Greg Mankiw’s doubts about the Administration forecast, can be interpreted as having effectively concurred with that forecast. I conclude with discussion of the shortcomings of the model that DeLong put forward when making his Krugman-endorsed criticism of Mankiw’s doubts.

Suggested Citation

  • David O. Cushman, 2013. "Paul Krugman Denies Having Concurred With an Administration Forecast: A Note," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 10(1), pages 108-115, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:108-115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econjwatch.org/File+download/624/CushmanJan2013.pdf?mimetype=pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econjwatch.org/844
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ngoo Yee Ting & Loi Siew Ling, 2011. "Okun’S Law In Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach With Hodrick-Prescott (Hp) Filter," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 2(1), pages 95-103, January.
    2. Michael Christl & Monika Köppl-Turyna & Dénes Kucsera, 2017. "Okun's Law in Austria," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 2, pages 97-110, June.
    3. Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014. "Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 421-433, September.
    4. Adama Zerbo, 2018. "A Theorem for Okun's Law," Documents de travail 180, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    5. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    6. William Van Lear, 2011. "Economic Crisis and the Fiscal Challenge of the State," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 61-77.
    7. Stephen T. Onifade & Ahmet Ay & Simplice A. Asongu & Festus V. Bekun, 2019. "Revisiting the Trade and Unemployment Nexus: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Economy," Working Papers 19/079, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    8. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Leat, Philip M.K. & Renwick, Alan W., 2012. "The relationship between output and unemployment in Scotland: A regional analysis," Working Papers 131465, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    9. Deepankar Basu1, Duncan K. Foley, 2011. "WP 2011-4 Dynamics of Output and Employment in the U.S. Economy," SCEPA working paper series. 2011-4, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    10. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
    11. Andrew Phiri, 2014. "Nonlinear Co-Integration Between Unemployment and Economic Growth in South Africa," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 12(4 (Winter), pages 303-324.
    12. Mindaugas Butkus & Janina Seputiene, 2019. "The Output Gap and Youth Unemployment: An Analysis Based on Okun’s Law," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Thomas Obst, 2022. "Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries—The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 225-241, May.
    14. Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law," Working Papers hal-04141207, HAL.
    15. Hutengs, Oliver & Stadtmann, Georg, 2014. "Youth and gender specific unemployment and Okun's law in Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 352, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    16. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2015. "Producto, desempleo y la Ley de Okun en la República Dominicana [Output, unemployment and Okun’s law in the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 63656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dunsch, Sophie, 2017. "Youth and gender-specific unemployment and Okun's law in Germany and Poland," Discussion Papers 397, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    18. Engelbert Stockhammer & Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos, 2014. "Rebalancing the Euro Area: The Costs of Internal Devaluation," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 210-233, April.
    19. Tariq Ahmad BHAT & Tariq Ahmad LONE & Towseef Mohi Ud DIN, 2019. "The validity of Okun’s Law: Evidences from Indian economy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 273-278, Winter.
    20. Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Paul Krugman; Brad DeLong; Greg Mankiw; Council of Economic Advisers; real GDP; forecasts; VAR; Okun’s Law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:108-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jason Briggeman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edgmuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.