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Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth

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  • Kodama, Masahiro
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we examine the influence of unpredictable aid on a recipient’s economic growth. If aid amounts vary by year and the changes are unpredictable, we expect that this “unpredictability” decreases aid’s growth-enhancing effect. This naturally raises the questions: How large is the influence of aid “unpredictability” on a recipient’s economic growth? Does “unpredictability” significantly damage aid’s growth-enhancing effect? Our research shows that the impact is significant; in a typical case, one fifth of aid is wasted due to “unpredictability.” Further, it is possible that in some cases, the aid may be wasted by as much as one third.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 266-272

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:40:y:2012:i:2:p:266-272

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

    Related research

    Keywords: aid; economic growth; predictability; low-income countries;

    References

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    9. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
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    14. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
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    16. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
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    Cited by:
    1. Giorgio Gualberti & Luis Filipe Martins & Morgan Bazilian, 2012. "An Econometric Analysis of the Effectiveness of Development Finance for the Energy Sector," Working Papers 2012.100, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Aurore Gary & Mathilde Maurel, 2013. "The effect of donors' policy coherence on growth," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Pietro Alessandrini & Andrea Presbitero, 2012. "Low-Income Countries and an SDR-based International Monetary System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 129-150, February.
    4. Aurore Gary & Mathilde Maurel, 2013. "The effect of donors' policy coherence on growth," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00825816, HAL.

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