Variety of national innovation systems (NIS) and alternative pathways to growth beyond the middle-income stage: Balanced, imbalanced, catching-up, and trapped NIS

This study uses the US patent data of 32 to 35 economies to measure, classify, and analyze the evolution and performance of their respective national innovation systems (NIS) or technology clubs, with a focus on those economies that sustained growth beyond the middle-income stage. The NIS is measured in terms of five variables, namely, knowledge localization, technological diversification, cycle time of technologies, originality, and decentralization. The cluster analysis identifies five major NIS clusters that are either balanced or imbalanced in terms of the relative values of the five NIS variables. Growth equation regressions confirm two pathways to achieve catching-up toward the high-income status. The one pathway has been identified for Ireland, Spain, Hong Kong, and Singapore, which all belong to the balanced and mixed NIS cluster and are joined recently by India and Russia, thus achieving “balanced catching-up”. The other pathway has been identified for Korea and Taiwan, which created imbalanced and catching-up clusters, and is recently joined by China. In contrast to these two groups, we have also identified the trapped NIS consisting of those economies perceived to be stuck in the middle-income trap, such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, South Africa, Malaysia, and Thailand. The imbalanced and catching-up NIS is characterized by short cycle time of technologies, low originality, high localization, and high diversification compared with the trapped NIS with the exactly opposite attributes. By contrast, the balanced and catching-up group is characterized by all of these NIS variables that are balanced at intermediate values.