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Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case

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  • Hernández-Moreno, Adolfo
  • Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta

Abstract

Vehicular fleet forecasting has a strategic value for governmental planning management and assessment, for economic policies and environmental programs, but particularly to estimate future emission inventories and fuel demand projections. In order to determine the forecasts of detailed vehicular fleets, those comprise the overall car stock and their associated pollutant emissions and fuel demand, specific curves of retirement models were used in addition to econometric analysis. To obtain forecasts for the year 2015, this methodology was applied to the Mexico City Metropolitan Area case using data since 1990. The validation of the models applied was done through economic data from 2004, 2006 and 2008. The results of the forecasts carried out displayed high confidence levels, above 95% for the medium term. The exercise with the forecasted fleets produced an expected increase of around 21% of criteria pollutants and 31% in greenhouse gases emissions due to vehicular activity, from 2007 to 2015. Further, an increase in fuel demand of around 22.9% gasoline and 27.1% diesel in the same period was estimated, which are lower than those officially projected. Finally, a specific coefficient β to the Gompertz equation applied to Mexico City case was obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández-Moreno, Adolfo & Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta, 2013. "Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 189-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:189-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.01.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth B. Medlock & Ronald Soligo, 2002. "Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 163-188, May.
    2. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
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