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Modeling isoexposure to transit users for market potential analysis


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  • Páez, Antonio
  • Trépanier, Martin
  • Morency, Catherine
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    Transit operators face a difficult fiscal environment and an imperative to contribute to urban sustainability. Under these circumstances, operators must find innovative ways to make public transportation attractive to broader segments of the public, while simultaneously trying to raise revenue to reduce reliance on public subsidies. Development of commercial partnerships is seen as a promising way to achieve these goals. Previous research has examined the potential of using geodemographics to assist transit agencies in the task of identifying potential partners for developing mutually beneficial commercial agreements. In this paper we describe an approach to model isoexposure to transit users as a tool to assess market potential. The approach is based on the analysis of walking behavior of transit users, and specifically distance walked at the end of their transit trip. Spatial modeling is used to geographically project estimates of walking distance for a desired demographic profile at a specific transit facility. After expanding the estimates using sample weights, overlays of these estimates can be used to generate variations in exposure to transit travelers at different locations in space. The approach is demonstrated using the case of Metro users in Montreal, Canada. The case study demonstrates the use of isoexposure profiles as a novel approach to generate marketing intelligence. This should be of interest to transit agencies and businesses interested in developing partnerships.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 46 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 10 ()
    Pages: 1517-1527

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:10:p:1517-1527

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    Keywords: Transit; Walking; Isoexposure; Spatial modeling; Market potential;


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    1. Anthony May & Simon Shepherd & Paul Timms, 2000. "Optimal transport strategies for European cities," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 285-315, June.
    2. Páez, Antonio & Trépanier, Martin & Morency, Catherine, 2011. "Geodemographic analysis and the identification of potential business partnerships enabled by transit smart cards," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 640-652, August.
    3. Craig Townsend & John Zacharias, 2010. "Built environment and pedestrian behavior at rail rapid transit stations in Bangkok," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 317-330, March.
    4. Gwilliam, Ken, 2008. "A review of issues in transit economics," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 4-22, January.
    5. Wei Zhu & Harry Timmermans, 2011. "Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 101-126, June.
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