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Does context matter? A comparative study modelling autonomous vehicle impact on travel behaviour for Germany and the USA

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  • Kröger, Lars
  • Kuhnimhof, Tobias
  • Trommer, Stefan

Abstract

This paper, for the first time, presents comparable projections of travel behaviour impacts of the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) into the private car fleet for two countries, namely the USA and Germany. The focus is on fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) which allow drivers to engage in other activities enroute. Two 2035 scenarios – a trend scenario and an extreme scenario – are presented for both study countries. For these projections, we combine a vehicle technology diffusion model and an aspatial travel demand model. Factors that influence AV impact in the behavioural model are mainly new automobile user groups, e.g. travellers with mobility impairments, and altered generalized costs of travel, e.g. due to a lower value of travel time savings for car travel. The results indicate that AV penetrations rates might be higher in Germany (10% or 38% respectively) than in the USA (8% or 29% respectively) due to a higher share of luxury cars and quicker fleet turnover. On the contrary, the increase of vehicle mileage induced by AVs is not higher in Germany (+2.4% or +8.6% respectively) than in the USA (+3.4% or +8.6% respectively). This is mainly due to the lack of mode alternatives and lower fuel costs resulting in a higher share of travel times among the total generalized costs of travel in the USA. These results clearly indicate that context factors shaped by national policy will influence AV adoption and impact on travel demand changes. Based on these results the paper draws policy recommendations which will help to harness the advantages of AVs while avoiding their negative consequences.

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  • Kröger, Lars & Kuhnimhof, Tobias & Trommer, Stefan, 2019. "Does context matter? A comparative study modelling autonomous vehicle impact on travel behaviour for Germany and the USA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 146-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:122:y:2019:i:c:p:146-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.03.033
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    10. Derrick Choe & Alexander Oettl & Robert Seamans, 2020. "What’s Driving Entrepreneurship and Innovation in the Transport Sector?," NBER Working Papers 27284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    13. Dannemiller, Katherine A. & Mondal, Aupal & Asmussen, Katherine E. & Bhat, Chandra R., 2021. "Investigating autonomous vehicle impacts on individual activity-travel behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 402-422.
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    15. Liliana Andrei & Oana Luca & Florian Gaman, 2022. "Insights from User Preferences on Automated Vehicles: Influence of Socio-Demographic Factors on Value of Time in Romania Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Leon Booth & Victoria Farrar & Jason Thompson & Rajith Vidanaarachchi & Branislava Godic & Julie Brown & Charles Karl & Simone Pettigrew, 2023. "Anticipated Transport Choices in a World Featuring Autonomous Transport Options," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-10, July.
    17. Fatemeh Nazari & Mohamadhossein Noruzoliaee & Abolfazl Mohammadian, 2023. "Behavioral acceptance of automated vehicles: The roles of perceived safety concern and current travel behavior," Papers 2302.12225, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    18. Jamil Hamadneh & Domokos Esztergár-Kiss, 2021. "The Influence of Introducing Autonomous Vehicles on Conventional Transport Modes and Travel Time," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-28, July.
    19. Wang, Jinghui & Yang, Hao, 2023. "Low carbon future of vehicle sharing, automation, and electrification: A review of modeling mobility behavior and demand," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    20. Nader Zali & Sara Amiri & Tan Yigitcanlar & Ali Soltani, 2022. "Autonomous Vehicle Adoption in Developing Countries: Futurist Insights," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-26, November.
    21. Lee, Dasom & Hess, David J., 2020. "Regulations for on-road testing of connected and automated vehicles: Assessing the potential for global safety harmonization," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 85-98.

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