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A novel approach to model selection in tourism demand modeling

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  • Akın, Melda

Abstract

In many studies on tourism demand modeling, the main conclusion is that none of the considered modeling approaches consistently outperforms the others. We consider Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average, ν-Support Vector Regression, and multi-layer perceptron type Neural Network models and optimize their parameters using different techniques for each and compare their performances on monthly tourist arrival data to Turkey from different countries. Based on these results, this study proposes a novel approach to model selection for a given tourism time series. Our approach is based on identifying the components of the given time series using structural time series modeling. Using the identified components we construct a decision tree and obtain a rule set for model selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Akın, Melda, 2015. "A novel approach to model selection in tourism demand modeling," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 64-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:64-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.11.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Havranek, Tomas & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2018. "Forecasting Tourist Arrivals with Google Trends and Mixed Frequency Data," EconStor Preprints 187420, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Tomas Havranek & Ayaz Zeynalov, 2021. "Forecasting tourist arrivals: Google Trends meets mixed-frequency data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(1), pages 129-148, February.
    3. Giovanni De Luca & Monica Rosciano, 2020. "Quantile Dependence in Tourism Demand Time Series: Evidence in the Southern Italy Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Law, Rob & Li, Gang & Fong, Davis Ka Chio & Han, Xin, 2019. "Tourism demand forecasting: A deep learning approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 410-423.
    5. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A regional perspective on the accuracy of machine learning forecasts of tourism demand based on data characteristics”," IREA Working Papers 201805, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    6. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 341-357, August.
    7. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Regional tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: Gaussian process regression vs. neural network models in a multiple-input multiple-output setting"," IREA Working Papers 201701, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    8. Moreno-Izquierdo, Luis & Egorova, Galina & Peretó-Rovira, Alexandre & Más-Ferrando , Adrián, 2018. "Exploring the use of artificial intelligence in price maximisation in the tourism sector: its application in the case of Airbnb in the Valencian Community," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 42, pages 113-128.

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