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The value of feedback in forecasting competitions

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Author Info

  • Athanasopoulos, George
  • Hyndman, Rob J.

Abstract

In this paper we challenge the traditional design used for forecasting competitions. We implement an online competition with a public leaderboard that provides instant feedback to competitors who are allowed to revise and resubmit forecasts. The results show that feedback significantly improves forecasting accuracy.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207011000495
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 845-849

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:3:p:845-849

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: Kaggle; Online competition; Revising forecasts; Public leaderboard; Tourism;

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References

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  1. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
  2. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 845-849, July.
  3. Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  4. Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K., 2000. "The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 521-530.
  5. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2011. "Do Experts' SKU Forecasts improve after Feedback?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-135/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2011. "Do experts' SKU forecasts improve after feedback?," Econometric Institute Report EI2011-31, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
  3. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2011. "The value of feedback in forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 845-849, July.

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