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Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

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  • Qiu, Richard T.R.
  • Wu, Doris Chenguang
  • Dropsy, Vincent
  • Petit, Sylvain
  • Pratt, Stephen
  • Ohe, Yasuo

Abstract

It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%–70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiu, Richard T.R. & Wu, Doris Chenguang & Dropsy, Vincent & Petit, Sylvain & Pratt, Stephen & Ohe, Yasuo, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:88:y:2021:i:c:s0160738321000177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155
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    6. Marcus Roller, 2022. "Pre-Crisis Determinants of Tourism Resilience," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper39, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    7. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "Does the combination of models with different explanatory variables improve tourism demand forecasting performance?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2032-2056, December.
    8. He, Ling-Yang & Li, Hui & Bi, Jian-Wu & Yang, Jing-Jing & Zhou, Qing, 2022. "The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
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    11. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
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    13. Fangming Qin & Gezhi Chen, 2022. "Vulnerability of Tourist Cities’ Economic Systems Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: System Characteristics and Formation Mechanisms—A Case Study of 46 Major Tourist Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, February.
    14. Yasuo Ohe, 2023. "Exploring New Opportunities for Agritourism in the Post-COVID-19 Era," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-4, June.
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